FT: 習近平復甦中國經濟,並重新贏得盟友信任的計畫 


作者/Author(s): James Kynge, Sun Yu, Xinning Liu 

原文來源/Source: Financial Times 

日期/Date: 01/10/2023 

主題/Key Topic: Economy, foreign policy 


雖然中國正在從其疫情清零戰略中努力復甦,但北京更專注於恢復過去兩年嚴重緊張的經濟和外交壓力。新政策旨在實現去年 10 月中共二十大制定的目標 

  • 經濟:目標是恢復強勁增長,以促進中國疲軟的經濟,改善中國農村工人的福利,穩定瀕臨破產的房地產行業,還有穩固地方政府的財政 
  • 外交:修復中國與西方,特別是與歐洲的關係。其雙邊關係在北京表示支持普丁入侵烏克蘭並通過「戰狼外交」對抗盟友後受到損害 



  • 中國認為在俄烏危機失敗後,俄羅斯的經濟和外交將從國際秩序中走下坡路 
  • 在北京和莫斯科宣布建立「沒有上限」夥伴關係的聯合聲明後,一些官員驚訝地認為普丁隱瞞了他對烏克蘭行動的真實意圖 
  • 中國正在向歐洲示好以減少中國的孤立,並阻止歐洲與美國走得更近 
  • 北京試圖說服其歐洲盟友,他可以利用中俄的密切關係阻止普丁動用核武,調解俄烏之間的衝突,並協助重建烏克蘭 
  • 北京力求確保對經貿至關重要的歐洲夥伴「不脫鉤」。 
  • 目前,中國已經在重啟外交方面取得重大成果 
  1. 德國總理蕭茲(Olaf Scholz)將中國視為重要的經貿夥伴,但蕭茲仍希望減少對中國的依賴
  2. 法國總統馬克宏(Emmanuel Macron)則是反對與中國脫鉤,主張保持接觸的人。中國希望利用馬克龍的戰略自主權野心來破解歐美之間的雙邊關係 
  • 然而,懷疑論者質疑中歐關係能否有完全修復的那一天。因為習近平對普丁仍持友好態度,而歐洲一直希望減少對中國特定原物料和技術產品的過度依賴。 

  • 透過推出促進經濟增長的政策,北京樂觀地認為他們可以在本年度第二季加速經濟增長 
  • 北京會考慮優先通過國有銀行的支持措施和信貸承諾來穩定房地產市場 
  • 另一個優先事項是刺激消費者支出 
  1. 長期目標:大幅增加中等收入人口,以達到「共同富裕」的目標 
  2. 短期目標:在 COVID-19 疫情結束後通過支出和消費來減輕經濟負擔 
  • 不少學者專家認為這短期目標是可以實現的,因為他們發現到自疫情開始以來,很多家庭儲蓄大增,現在在解封後可能會出現消費風潮
  • 一些分析人士在觀察到香港恆生指數反彈後,樂觀地認為中國經濟正在復甦 
  • 另一派看法則認為,疫情的感染期和變種病毒起伏不定,加之中國的低水平投資和缺乏生產訂單,恐會拉低中國復甦的經濟能力和樂觀程度 
While China is still struggling to recover from its abandonment of the zero-COVID strategy, Beijing is focusing on restoring its economy and diplomacy, which were severely strained over the past two years. The new policies also aim to materialize the objectives formulated during the 20th CCP Congress last October. 

Main goals of the policies: 
  • Economy: Restore strong growth to boost China’s ailing economy, improve the welfare of Chinese rural workers, steady the dying real estate sector, and stabilize local governments’ finances.
  • Diplomacy: Fix China’s ties with the West, especially in Europe, which were damaged after Beijing showed support for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and antagonized its allies through its “wolf-warrior” diplomacy. 
Enticing Europe 
  • China anticipates Russia’s economic and diplomatic decline from the international order after its failed Ukraine campaign.  
  • Some officials lamented Putin for concealing his real intention for the Ukraine campaign after Beijing and Moscow declared a joint statement of a “no-limit” partnership. 
  • China is enticing Europe to reduce its isolation and deter Europe from getting more intimate with the US.
  • Beijing convinces its European allies that it can hinder Putin from using nuclear weapons with its close ties to Moscow, mediate peace between Russia and Ukraine, and help reconstruct Ukraine.
  • Beijing seeks to ensure a “no decoupling” mantra with its European friends that are crucial for trade and the economy. 
  • So far, China’s endeavor in diplomatic reset has seen significant results:
  1. ​​​​​​​Scholz (Germany) sees China as a valuable trade and economic partner but still hopes to reduce dependency on China. 
  2. Macron (France) is against decoupling and wishes for continuous engagement. China hopes to use Macron’s strategic autonomy ambitions to crack Europe-US relations. 
  • However, skeptic doubts China-Europe ties can be mended entirely because Xi still has a soft spot for Putin and Europe wants to end overreliance on China for specific raw material and technological products. 

Revitalizing economy 
  • With pro-growth policies, Beijing is optimistic that it can have accelerated economic growth in the second quarter. 
  • Beijing prioritizes stabilizing the real estate market with support measures and credit pledges from state-run banks. 
  • Another priority is increasing consumer spending: ​​​​​​​
  1. Long-term goals: Materialize the “common prosperity” goal by drastically increasing the middle-income population. 
  2. Short-term goals: Economic relief through spending after COVID disruptions end. 
  • Expert assumes the short-term goals are achievable after observing considerable family savings since the pandemic started may spur a spending spree. 
  • Some analysts are optimistic that China is gradually returning to good health after observing a rebound in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index. 
  • However, some doubted China’s recovery after observing the tumultuous lockdown removal, citing the COVID infection waves, low-level investment, and lack of production orders.