FA: 當貿易成為戰爭的起因 (Part 1: 理論部分) 

作者/Author(s): Dale C. Copeland 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 08/23/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Economic, War, IR Theory 

摘要:

國際關係理論學家認為經濟相互依賴將會有效促進和平，因為這會給國家行為體帶來巨大的軍事衝突成本。然而，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭和中國對佩洛西訪台的報復，凸顯了經濟相互依賴也有其局限性。從現實主義的觀點來看，經濟上相互依賴是戰爭的刺激因素，而不是控制因素。經濟上較低依賴或者不合，也不一定構成武裝衝突的起因。 

現實主義學者如何看待經濟相互依賴的關係 

  • 在無政府狀態的國際社會中，軍事能力和國力的相對性將引起大國競爭。但國際貿易提供了經濟實力，經濟實力則持續推動長期軍事能力增強。 
  • 開放貿易的兩面刃 
  1. 優勢：貿易將會讓一個國家獲得更廉價原料以及利益市場，進而使國家經濟和科技技術有所成長。
  2. 威脅：大國更容易受到進出口制裁的影響，促使一個國家擴大海軍，以保護其貿易路線，或者透過戰爭來確保關鍵貨物和市場進出口。 
  • 如果政府希望他們的對外貿易關係更加長遠，他們可能會允許更高程度地依賴其他國家以推動自己國家的經濟增長。 
  • 如果政府預測貿易保護主義會導致經濟實力下降，從而間接削弱軍事力量，他們就會認為有必要採取積極的政策來保護其貿易和原材料的獲取。 
  • 執政政府將面臨兩難境地，因為他們一定會採取積極行動來保護自己的利益，但其他人會認為他們好戰，就像 1930 年代的日本和現在的中國一樣。 
  • 中國明白，他們需要一個平衡的外交政策來培養各國與中國持續貿易的信心。但是，他們必須展示他們的軍事力量來阻止其他國家擅自切斷貿易關係。這解釋了中國目前在東亞的敵意，在一定程度上也解釋了普丁入侵烏克蘭的原因。 
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接下來的部分將深入探討俄羅斯和中國目前的對立關係，以及減輕經濟依賴危險的方法。 
 

第二部分：俄羅斯 

第三部分：中國 

第四部分：給全球的啟示 


Summary: 

IR theorists suggested that economic interdependence promotes peace because it can inflict an immense cost on military clashes for actors. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s retaliation to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan show the limits of economic interdependence. From a realist perspective, economic interdependence is a stimulus for war, not a restraint, and economic discord may not be the cause of armed conflicts. 

How realists view economic interdependence 

  • In an anarchic world, relative military capabilities and national power cause great power competitions, but international trade drives economic power, consecutively enhancing long-term military capabilities. 
  •  The two effects of open trade: ​​​​​​​
  1. The advantage: Trade boosts a country’s economy and technology through access to cheap raw materials and lucrative markets. 
  2. The threat: Great power is more vulnerable to import and export sanctions pushing a state to expand its navy for trade route protection or for war to secure critical goods and market access. 
  • If governments expect trade relations to be durable, they may allow higher dependence on foreign entities to drive state growth. 
  • If governments predict a deteriorating economic power due to trade protectionism, which indirectly weakens military power, they perceive the need for aggressive policies to protect their access to trade and raw materials. 
  • Governments face dilemmas because they will act aggressively to protect their interests, but others will be them as belligerent, which is the case with Japan in the 1930s and current China.  
  • China understands that they need a balanced foreign policy to foster confidence in continuous trade. However, they must show their military force to stop others from cutting trade relations. This explains China’s current hostility in East Asia and, to a certain extent, Putin’s cause for invading Ukraine.  
 
​​​​​​​The next parts will delve into the current antagonism of Russia and China, then the way to mitigate the dangers of economic dependence. 
 

Part 2: Russia 

Part 3: China 

Part 4: The Lessons 

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