FP: 俄烏危機中誰贏了制裁?

作者/Author(s): Bruce W. Jentleson 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 08/18/2022 

主題/Key Topics : Economic 

摘要：

美國對俄羅斯的制裁分為三個階段，三個階段各自有不同的目的和結果。目前，制裁正進入第三階段。

第一階段： 
  • 目的：威懾。 
  • 結果：失敗。雖然拜登發出了嚴正警告，普丁仍然決定入侵烏克蘭。 
第二階段： 
  • 目的：迫使普丁撤軍。 
  • 結果：成敗參半。 
  • 技術、金融、經濟以及對人的制裁孤立了俄羅斯人。 
  • 能源制裁來的較慢，這是考量到許多歐洲國家嚴重依賴俄羅斯。 
  • 制裁嚴重影響了俄羅斯的經濟：盧布貶值很多，失業率和通貨膨脹率居高不下。 
  • 俄羅斯為了減輕制裁帶來的影響，實施了三種策略： 
1.尋找新的替代貿易夥伴： 
  • 中國和印度增加了俄羅斯石油進口 
  •  高能源價格抵消了俄羅斯的損失。 
2.繞過制裁： 
  • 油輪偷運俄羅斯石油並與其他石油混合後，一同運往煉油廠。 
  • 油輪偷運俄羅斯石油並與其他石油混合後，一同運往煉油廠。 
3.國內政策減緩影響： 
  • 央行提高利率，控制資本，使盧布升值。 
  • 克里姆林宮不斷鎮壓反對派以控制國內的抗議活動。 
第三階段： 
  • 目的：消耗戰(消磨對方作戰的意志) 
  • 俄羅斯正在逐步邁向勝利 
  1. 歐盟面臨天然氣短缺，需要配給能源、提高電價並重啟燃煤電廠。 
  2. 高能源價格和糧食短缺將貧困和發展中國家推向更貧困的窘境。 
  • 俄羅斯正在失敗中 
  1. 制裁對俄羅斯經濟造成了嚴重的結構性損害。 
  2. 科技部門的人才和經驗豐富的工人流失。 
  3. 進攻部隊的補給受阻。 

可以將經濟影響轉化為政策合法性的因素： 
  • 國內行為體是否可以代表國家抵制制裁或向政府施壓以使其遵守。 
  • 如果被制裁國願意談判，制裁國的外交戰略能否給出令人滿意但互惠的解除制裁條件。 
 
Summary: 
US sanctions on Russia comes in three stages with different purposes and results. Currently, the sanctions are moving to the third phase. 

Phase one: 
  • Aim: Deterrence. 
  • Result: Failed. Putin still invaded Ukraine despite warnings from Biden. 
Phase two: 
  • Aim: Force Putin to withdraw.
  • Result: Mixed successes.  
  • Technology, financial, economic, and interpersonal bans isolated Russians.  
  • Energy sanctions materialized slower since many European countries depended on Russia heavily. 
  • The sanctions severely impacted Russia’s economy: the Ruble lost much of its value, with high unemployment and inflation. 
  • Russia’s three strategies to mitigate the impact of sanctions: 
1.Alternative trade partners:  
  • China and India increased Russian oil imports 
  • High energy prices allowed Russia to offset the loss from discounted prices.  
2.Sanction bypass:  
  • Oil tankers smuggle Russian oil and mix it with other oils to refiners. 
  • Oil tankers smuggle Russian oil and mix it with other oils to refiners. 
3.Domestic offsets: 
  • The central bank increased the interest rate and controlled capital to reappreciate the Ruble. 
  • Kremlin repressed opposition to stop domestic protests. 
 
Phase three: 
  • Aim: Attrition (Grinding down opponent’s desire to fight) 
  • Russia is winning: 
  1. ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​European Union faces gas shortages, needs to ration energy, increase electricity prices, and restart coal power plants.  
  2. High energy prices and food shortages push poor and developing countries into poverty. 
  • Russia is losing: ​​​​​​​
  1. The sanctions caused profound structural damage to Russia’s economy. 
  2. Loss of talents and experienced workers in the tech sector. 
  3. Resupply of invasion forces is impeded. 
Factors that can convert economic impact to policy compliance: 
  • Whether domestic actors can resist the sanctions on behalf of the country or pressure the government to comply. 
  • Whether sanctioning countries’ diplomatic strategy can give agreeable but reciprocal terms for removing sanctions if the sanctioned country complies wish to negotiate. 
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