FP: 俄烏危機中誰贏了制裁?
可以將經濟影響轉化為政策合法性的因素:

作者/Author(s): Bruce W. Jentleson
原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy
日期/Date: 08/18/2022
主題/Key Topics : Economic
摘要:
美國對俄羅斯的制裁分為三個階段,三個階段各自有不同的目的和結果。目前,制裁正進入第三階段。
第一階段:
第一階段:
- 目的:威懾。
- 結果:失敗。雖然拜登發出了嚴正警告,普丁仍然決定入侵烏克蘭。
第二階段:
- 目的:迫使普丁撤軍。
- 結果:成敗參半。
- 技術、金融、經濟以及對人的制裁孤立了俄羅斯人。
- 能源制裁來的較慢,這是考量到許多歐洲國家嚴重依賴俄羅斯。
- 制裁嚴重影響了俄羅斯的經濟:盧布貶值很多,失業率和通貨膨脹率居高不下。
- 俄羅斯為了減輕制裁帶來的影響,實施了三種策略:
1.尋找新的替代貿易夥伴:
- 中國和印度增加了俄羅斯石油進口
- 高能源價格抵消了俄羅斯的損失。
2.繞過制裁:
- 油輪偷運俄羅斯石油並與其他石油混合後,一同運往煉油廠。
- 油輪偷運俄羅斯石油並與其他石油混合後,一同運往煉油廠。
3.國內政策減緩影響:
- 央行提高利率,控制資本,使盧布升值。
- 克里姆林宮不斷鎮壓反對派以控制國內的抗議活動。
第三階段:
- 目的:消耗戰(消磨對方作戰的意志)
- 俄羅斯正在逐步邁向勝利
- 歐盟面臨天然氣短缺,需要配給能源、提高電價並重啟燃煤電廠。
- 高能源價格和糧食短缺將貧困和發展中國家推向更貧困的窘境。
- 俄羅斯正在失敗中
- 制裁對俄羅斯經濟造成了嚴重的結構性損害。
- 科技部門的人才和經驗豐富的工人流失。
- 進攻部隊的補給受阻。
可以將經濟影響轉化為政策合法性的因素:
- 國內行為體是否可以代表國家抵制制裁或向政府施壓以使其遵守。
- 如果被制裁國願意談判,制裁國的外交戰略能否給出令人滿意但互惠的解除制裁條件。
Summary:
US sanctions on Russia comes in three stages with different purposes and results. Currently, the sanctions are moving to the third phase.
Phase one:
Phase one:
- Aim: Deterrence.
- Result: Failed. Putin still invaded Ukraine despite warnings from Biden.
Phase two:
- Aim: Force Putin to withdraw.
- Result: Mixed successes.
- Technology, financial, economic, and interpersonal bans isolated Russians.
- Energy sanctions materialized slower since many European countries depended on Russia heavily.
- The sanctions severely impacted Russia’s economy: the Ruble lost much of its value, with high unemployment and inflation.
- Russia’s three strategies to mitigate the impact of sanctions:
1.Alternative trade partners:
- China and India increased Russian oil imports
- High energy prices allowed Russia to offset the loss from discounted prices.
2.Sanction bypass:
- Oil tankers smuggle Russian oil and mix it with other oils to refiners.
- Oil tankers smuggle Russian oil and mix it with other oils to refiners.
3.Domestic offsets:
- The central bank increased the interest rate and controlled capital to reappreciate the Ruble.
- Kremlin repressed opposition to stop domestic protests.
Phase three:
- Aim: Attrition (Grinding down opponent’s desire to fight)
- Russia is winning:
- European Union faces gas shortages, needs to ration energy, increase electricity prices, and restart coal power plants.
- High energy prices and food shortages push poor and developing countries into poverty.
- Russia is losing:
- The sanctions caused profound structural damage to Russia’s economy.
- Loss of talents and experienced workers in the tech sector.
- Resupply of invasion forces is impeded.
Factors that can convert economic impact to policy compliance:
- Whether domestic actors can resist the sanctions on behalf of the country or pressure the government to comply.
- Whether sanctioning countries’ diplomatic strategy can give agreeable but reciprocal terms for removing sanctions if the sanctioned country complies wish to negotiate.