編輯器
FP: 北京是如何看待拜登的
作者/Author(s): Melindia Liu
原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy
日期/Date: 04/14/2022
主題/Key Topics : Grand Strategy, Foreign Policy
摘要:
拜登可能是與大多數中國領導人，尤其是習近平有過互動的美國總統。北京方面預計，與川普相比，拜登對中國的敵意會降低。出乎北京意料，拜登破壞了中國的戰略利益，他繼續川普的對抗性做法，召集民主國家對抗中國，使他比川普更難對付，特別是在台灣問題上。
美國對俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的反應是反對中國強制統一台灣的嚴厲警告。在入侵開始之前，美國利用資訊戰、加強聯盟和發布關鍵情報來確定俄羅斯的行動。美國及其盟友隨後實施了超出中國預期的嚴厲金融和經濟制裁。2014年克里米亞吞併事件中，美國對俄羅斯的制裁軟弱無力，這使中國有膽量在南海海域上更有侵略性。緊接而來地，中國在美國的公眾形像多年來受到損害，解釋了拜登現在對中國的大膽行為。
中國決策者認為拜登不理解習思想，並堅持維護民主價值觀、國際秩序和國際法。事實上，拜登支持中國的發展，但不斷警告中國不要違反或改變現行國際規則和規範。北京方面將拜登最近加強聯盟、包圍中國的舉動解讀為美國企圖阻礙中國崛起。然而，中國沒有意識到它的行為以及外國對它的印象會隨著時間而改變。
習近平正在尋求第三個連任任期，這使得他面臨很多困難，但第三次連任可能會讓他成為更長遠的領導人。習近平也相信，中國正在崛起，反之，美國也一樣。北京鷹派將目前的中美關係惡化歸咎於特川普，並希望拜登率先採取和解行動，但這不太可能發生。
Summary:
Joe Biden may be the US President that interacted with most Chinese leaders, especially Xi Jinping. Beijing expected Biden would be less hostile to China compared to Trump. Instead, Biden undermined China’s strategic interests by continuing Trump’s antagonistic approach and rallying democracies to confront China, making him harder to deal with than Trump, especially in the Taiwan issue.
The US’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a stark warning for China against Taiwan’s forced reunification. Before the invasion started, the US used information warfare, bolster alliances and release key intelligence to ascertain Russia’s actions. The US, with its allies, followed up with harsh financial and economic sanctions that exceeded China’s expectations. The US sanctioned Russia weakly in response to the 2014 Crimea annexation, which emboldened China to be more aggressive in the South China Sea. Subsequently, China’s public image in the US was tarnished over the years, explaining Biden’s boldness against China now.
Chinese policymakers assume Biden does not understand Xi’s beliefs and is adamant about preserving democratic values, international order, and international law. In fact, Biden supported China’s growth but constantly warned China against violating or changing the current international rules and norms. Beijing interprets Bidens’s recent actions, enhancing alliances and encircling China, are attempts to hinder China’s rise. However, China failed to realize that its behavior, along with foreign impression of it, can change over time.
Xi Jinping is facing a tough time domestically and is running for a third term that may make him an eternal leader. Xi is also confident that China is rising and vice versa for the US. Beijing hawks blamed Trump for the current sour relations and hoped Biden would make the first move in reconciliation, but that is unlikely to happen.
The US’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a stark warning for China against Taiwan’s forced reunification. Before the invasion started, the US used information warfare, bolster alliances and release key intelligence to ascertain Russia’s actions. The US, with its allies, followed up with harsh financial and economic sanctions that exceeded China’s expectations. The US sanctioned Russia weakly in response to the 2014 Crimea annexation, which emboldened China to be more aggressive in the South China Sea. Subsequently, China’s public image in the US was tarnished over the years, explaining Biden’s boldness against China now.
Chinese policymakers assume Biden does not understand Xi’s beliefs and is adamant about preserving democratic values, international order, and international law. In fact, Biden supported China’s growth but constantly warned China against violating or changing the current international rules and norms. Beijing interprets Bidens’s recent actions, enhancing alliances and encircling China, are attempts to hinder China’s rise. However, China failed to realize that its behavior, along with foreign impression of it, can change over time.
Xi Jinping is facing a tough time domestically and is running for a third term that may make him an eternal leader. Xi is also confident that China is rising and vice versa for the US. Beijing hawks blamed Trump for the current sour relations and hoped Biden would make the first move in reconciliation, but that is unlikely to happen.