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The Sydney Morning Herald: 「災難可能就在眼前」澳大利亞絕不能誤判中國的致命戰略 


 

作者/Author(s): David Livingstone 

原文來源/Source: The Sydney Morning Herald 《雪梨晨鋒報 

日期/Date: 06/28/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Military Strategy

摘要:

中國聲稱其在台灣海峽、南海和西太平洋的主權,導致解放軍頻繁入侵台灣海峽,並對進入其領土的人進行騷擾。 西方國家基於法律依據和安全利益反對中國的領土主張,但中國並不認同西方國家的主張與看法。從整個大戰略布局來看,中國越來越強硬的態度揭示了其挑戰西方軍事承諾和造成美國及其夥伴之間裂痕的別有用心,而這被認為是一種先發制人的戰略。中國的戰略包括以下內容:突然奇襲,給予對手沉重的打擊,準備好彥霖重大損失,確保戰略威懾目標。 

首先,中國將攻擊美國的盟友而不攻擊美國,因為美國並未受到直接攻擊,其反而會陷入進退兩難的境地然後,中國將把對手引誘到有利於中國的場域,尤其是美國航母鞭長莫及的地帶,再使用最小但致命的偷襲。最後,中國試圖通過假訊息和外交手段來改變說法並緩和緊張局勢,但不會改變其主張。簡單來說,中國會在採取快速行動前充分警告對手,但他不會在敵人面前緩和衝突。中國微妙的戰略意味著西方無法做出有意義的反應,美國也無法有效反制。 美國也將發現很難證明其對中國侵略的軍事反應是正當的,導致西方在主張其航行自由概念時更加謹慎 


Summary: 

China's claim of sovereignty over the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and West Pacific Ocean results in frequent PLA incursions into the Taiwan Strait and harassment of those who entered its claimed territories. The West stood against China's territorial claim based on legal arguments and security interests, but China did not acknowledge them. On a larger picture, China's increasing assertiveness reveals an ulterior motive to challenge the West's military commitments and cause a rift among the US and its partners, which is considered a pre-emptive strategy. China's strategy consists of the following: surprise attack, a heavy blow to its opponent, preparing to accept significant losses from its action, and securing strategic objective of deterrence.  

First, China will attack US allies to put the US into a dilemma since the US is not under a direct attack. Then, China will lure its opponent into a playground favoring China and use minimal but fatal sneak attacks, especially in a place without the presence of US carriers. Finally, China will try to change the narrative and reduce tensions through disinformation and diplomacy but will not budge from its assertions. In short, China will warn its opponents adequately before attacking them swiftly and will not deescalate the conflict before its foes. China's delicate strategy means the West cannot react meaningfully, and the US cannot counter effectively. The US will also find it hard to justify its military response against Chinese aggression, resulting in the West being more careful when asserting its freedom of navigation.