編輯器
FP: 如何避免在關鍵礦產供應鏈上出現新冷戰 

 

作者/Author(s): Cullen Hendrix 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 11/22/2022 

主題/Key Topics : U.S.-China Relations, Climate Change, Resource Diplomacy 

摘要： 

綠色大博弈，簡單來說：在可持續技術方面取得優勢的競賽，將定義現代大國競爭。雖然世界仍然嚴重依賴碳氫化合物，但各國正在慢慢減少其依賴，以支持可永續的能源系統，這凸顯了稀土礦物對能源轉型的重要性。稀土礦物還能促進技術革新，推動經濟增長和軍事現代化，使大國有理由控制供應鏈。然而，美中其實可以避免爭奪稀土供應鏈的控制權，進而合作共謀大局。

為什麼可以避免競爭？ 

  • 用於可再生能源的稀土礦物不會不斷消耗。雖然它可能會減緩能源基礎設施的擴張或修復，但不會導致全面的能源危機。 
  • 與公營企業相比，更多的私人或上市公司控制著關鍵礦產，這些公司可能不代表其政府的國家利益。 
  • 大多數關鍵礦物都可以回收利用而不會失去其功能，從而減少對新礦床的依賴。
為甚麼無法做到？ 
  • 美國和中國主要依賴進口原礦產材料，其中中國又是精煉和冶煉工業用礦石的大國。 
  • 稀土礦物市場規模小，因此極易受到戰略操縱的脆弱和敏感性。 
  • 某些關鍵礦產的儲量高度集中在當地政治動蕩的小型經濟體中。美國或中國可能透過直接軍事干預或極端外交手段來控制供應鏈。 
 

 如何避免稀土冷戰 

  • 投資新的生產和回收設施以拓寬供應鏈，從而減少市場對特定來源的依賴。 
  • 在不考慮地緣政治利益的情況下擴大原材料生產國的煉油能力，以增加當地就業機會和經濟增長。 
  • 稀土礦產國可以加入國際採掘業透明度倡議 (EITI) (https://eiti.org/)等制度，進而繁榮和發展他們的國家。 
 
Summary: 
The Great Green Game, in simple terms: the race to achieve superiority in sustainable technology, will define modern great power competition. While the world still relies heavily on hydrocarbons, countries are slowly cutting their dependence in favor of sustainable energy systems, highlighting the importance of rare earth minerals for the energy transition. Rare earth minerals also promote technological innovation that drives economic growth and military modernization, giving great powers a reason to control the supply chain. However, the U.S. and China can avoid competing over the control of the rare earth supply chain and can cooperate for the greater good. 

Why can competition be avoided? 
  • Rare earth minerals for renewable energy resources are not constantly expended. Although it may slow down the expansion or repair of energy infrastructures, it will not lead to an all-out energy crisis. 
  • More private or publicly traded companies control the critical minerals than state-controlled firms, meaning the companies may not represent the national interests of their government. 
  • Most critical minerals are recyclable without losing their functionality, thus reducing reliance on new ore deposits. 
Why not? 
  • The U.S. and China depend predominantly on imported raw critical minerals, and China is the powerhouse for refining and smelting the ores for industrial use. 
  • The rare earth mineral market is small, thus, is highly vulnerable and sensitive to strategic manipulation. 
  • The reserve for certain critical minerals is highly concentrated in small economies with volatile local politics. The U.S. or China may resort to direct military intervention or extreme diplomatic leverage to control the supply chain. 
 
Avoiding the rare earth cold war 
  • Invest in new production and recycling facilities to widen the supply chain to make the market less dependent on specific sources. 
  • Expand refining capacity in raw-material-producing countries without considering geopolitical interest to boost local job opportunities and economic growth. 
  • Rare earth mineral-producing countries can join a regime such as the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) to prosper and develop their country. 
回上層