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P:對俄羅斯的制裁正發揮作用，但速度很慢


 

作者/Author(s): Oleg Korenok, Swapnil Singh, and Stan Veuger 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 07/18/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Economic, Sanctions

摘要:

盧布的匯率恢復到遠高於俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭前，使觀察家們懷疑西方制裁的有效性。經審查後發現，這些制裁是間接的，旨在限制經濟活動。因此，它節奏緩慢，與軍事進攻不同，但從長遠來看會削弱俄羅斯的軍事力量。對俄羅斯來說，唯一積極的前景是雖然俄羅斯石油禁運持續進行中，俄羅斯的石油收入仍不斷增加。但有跡象表明，俄羅斯現在正感受到制裁的痛苦。 

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  • 俄羅斯經濟因外國資產凍結、股市崩盤、跨國公司撤出和嚴格的資本控制而遭到破壞。 
  • 制裁限制了俄羅斯的進出口能力，削弱了俄羅斯的後勤和技術能力，這也使俄羅斯的戰鬥實力受到影響。 
  • 俄羅斯嚴重依賴向歐洲出口石油和天然氣，歐洲可以克服這些問題，雖然還是存在一些缺點。 
  • 中國是俄羅斯進口的主要貿易對象。儘管堅定不移地支持俄羅斯，但由於擔心遭受二級制裁，中國對俄羅斯的出口大幅下滑。 
  • 沒有錢按時給士兵發薪水，沒有維修軍事裝備的零件，沒有維持軍事優勢的技術，俄羅斯的作戰能力大受打擊。 
  • 美國及其盟友可以加強目前對能源和金融的制裁，以加快成效。一旦國內挑戰得到解決，就可以在能源方面對俄羅斯實施燃料禁運和關稅。也建議針對俄羅斯通過第三方出口石油的手段，凍結俄羅斯的能源收入。除此之外，還可以對剩餘的俄羅斯銀行、俄羅斯的海外投資公司和盧布交易實施金融制裁。 
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Summary: 
Ruble recovered well above its exchange rate before the Ukraine’s invasion, making observers doubt the effectiveness of Western sanctions. Upon examination, the sanctions are indirect and aimed at restricting economic activity. Therefore, it is slow-paced and asynchronous with military attacks, but it will reduce Russia’s military power in the long run. The only positive outlook for Russia is the increase in oil revenue despite bans on Russian oil purchases, but there are signs that Russia is feeling the pain of sanctions now. 
 
  • Russia’s economy is ruined with frozen foreign assets, a stock market crash, exoduses of multinational companies, and strict capital controls. 
  • Sanctions limit Russia’s export and import capability, thus reducing Russia’s warmongering strength by grinding Russia’s logistical and technical capacity. 
  • Russia relies heavily on Europe for oil and gas exports, but Europe can substitute them despite some drawbacks. 
  • China was the primary source of manufactured goods for Russia. Despite unwavering support for Russia, China’s export to Russia slumped due to fear of secondary sanctions. 
  • The lack of money to pay soldiers punctually, lack of parts to repair military equipment, and lack of technology to maintain military advantage wear down Russia’s warfighting ability.
  • The US and its allies can reinforce the current sanctions on energy and finance to speed up its effects. Fuel embargo and tariff can be imposed on Russian fuel on the energy front once domestic challenges are addressed. Targeting Russia’s means of exporting oil through a third party and freezing Russia’s energy income are also recommended. Financial sanctions on remaining Russian banks, overseas investment firms in Russia, and Ruble transactions can be imposed as well.  
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