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FA：中國從俄烏戰爭中學到甚麼?

 

作者/Author(s): David Sacks 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 05/16/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Grand Strategy, Foreign Policy, Economic, Military 

摘要:

美國需要改進其對中國的遊戲規則，以阻止中國入侵台灣和增加侵略。事實上，鑑於中國在全球經濟中扮演的重要性，美國不應指望對中國實施制裁。 

美國能夠： 

  • 與最親密的合作夥伴談判制裁方案並討論替代方案，以減少對中國的經濟依賴，尤其是在稀土供應方面。
  • 通過軍事干預、協助訓練台灣軍隊、幫助制定不對稱防禦戰略以及向台灣運送武器，在台灣問題上轉向戰略清晰。 
  • 與台灣及其盟國共享情報，以監視解放軍的行動並計劃協調一致的反應，為中國入侵台灣做準備。 
  • 假設俄羅斯將通過在歐洲發動網路攻擊來分散美中國競逐的注意力，以回報中國在俄烏危機期間的支持。 
  • 小心謹慎地加強台灣的防衛。在秘密場合，美國需要強調這些行動與美國的一個中國政策是一致的，純粹是對台海力量變化的回應。在公開場合，美國必須強調，它不支持台灣獨立，並致力於維持台灣海峽的現狀。 
 
Summary: 
The US needs to improve its playbook on China to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and increased aggression. In fact, the US should not expect sanctions to be effective against China, given China’s importance in the global economy. The US can: 
 
  • Negotiate a sanctions package and discuss alternatives with its closest partners to reduce economic dependence on China, especially in the supply of rare earth.
  • Shift to strategic clarity in Taiwan's issue by committing military intervention, assisting in training Taiwan's military, helping develop an asymmetric defense strategy, and delivering weapons to Taiwan. 
  • Share intelligence with Taiwan and its allies to monitor PLA’s actions and plan a coordinated response to prepare for China’s invasion of Taiwan. 
  • Assume that Russia will repay China's support during the Ukraine war by distracting the US from encountering China by launching cyberattacks in Europe.  
  • Bolster Taiwan’s defenses carefully and discreetly. In secret, the US needs to stress that such actions are consistent with the US’s One-China policy and are purely a response to the changing balance of power in the Taiwan Strait. In public, the US must emphasize that it does not support Taiwan’s independence and is committed to maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.  
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