作者/Author(s): Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 07/22/2022 

主題/Key Topics : Sanctions, Economic 

摘要：

俄羅斯公佈了不準確和具有誤導性的經濟數據，以掩蓋其在西方制裁下經濟狀況的真實情況。透過專家的協助，作者通過挖掘克里姆林宮及其貿易夥伴的數據，分析了俄羅斯當前經濟的實際情況，並得出結論：俄羅斯的經濟正在迅速惡化。 

• 天然氣和石油出口的急劇下降削弱了俄羅斯的收入。俄羅斯更加地依賴歐洲市場。儘管俄羅斯的能源政策也轉向亞洲，但缺乏運輸替代方案、新基礎設施的高成本以及願意購買者對折扣的需求剝奪了俄羅斯的可觀收入。 
• 對國內經濟至關重要的俄羅斯進口額下降。許多出口商，甚至是中國，由於擔心二級制裁的影響，不願與俄羅斯進行貿易。再加上自給自足和創造進口替代的挑戰，俄羅斯無法獲得關鍵零件、技術和消費品。這導致他們無法修復損壞的軍事裝備，隨之而來的還有消費支出持續下降和高通脹。 
• 俄羅斯的企業大量撤退，導致外國投資和高技術人才大量流失。 
• 儘管能源價格因經濟結構性疲軟以及不可持續的財政和貨幣政策而飆升，但這對俄羅斯本身收入並無幫助，其將會持續面臨預算赤字。由於無法動用外匯儲備，克里姆林宮的現金也在迅速耗盡。 
• 由於嚴格的資本管制使俄羅斯人無法與其他貨幣兌換以及人為的需求通脹導致流動性低，因此俄羅斯盧布升值。實際上，盧布的升值反映了克里姆林宮的政策和對俄羅斯貿易平衡的粗略解讀，而不是實際的外匯市場。 

• A sharp decline in gas and oil exports cripples Russia’s income. Russia relied more on the European market rather than vice versa. Despite pivoting to Asia, the lack of transport alternatives, the high cost of new infrastructure, and the demand for a discount from willing buyers deprive Russia of substantial income. 
• Russia’s import, which is essential to the domestic economy, declined. Exporters, even China, fearing the impact of secondary sanctions, are reluctant to trade with Russia. With the challenges to self-suffice and creating import substitution, Russia cannot obtain crucial parts, technologies, and consumer goods. This leads to the inability to repair damaged military equipment, low consumer spending, and high inflation. 
• There is a massive business retreat from Russia, resulting in a mammoth loss of foreign investment and highly-skilled talents. 
• Russia will run a budget deficit, although energy prices soared due to structural weakness in the economy and unstainable fiscal and monetary policies. Kremlin is also running out of cash quickly due to its inability to access foreign exchange reserves. 
• Russian Ruble appreciated due to strict capital control that disables Russians to exchange with other currencies and artificial demand inflation, resulting in low liquidity. In reality, Ruble’s appreciation reflected the Kremlin’s policies and rough interpretation of Russia’s trade balance rather than the actual foreign exchange market.