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FP: 普丁的戰爭扼殺了中國的歐亞鐵路之夢


 

作者/Author(s): Andrea Brinza 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 03/01/2022 

主題/Key Topics : BRI, Eurasian Railway

摘要:

新亞歐大陸橋（NELB）是“一帶一路”倡議下的重要項目，通過哈薩克斯坦、俄羅斯和白俄羅斯連接中國和歐洲，其中約一半的路線途經俄羅斯。然而，由於俄烏危機，歐洲對俄羅斯的制裁嚴重阻礙了該項目。 


俄烏危機前的新亞歐大陸橋

  • 大約 78 條線路連接 23 個歐洲國家的 180 個城市。
  • 2021 年，其出行次數達到近 14,000 人次，並在疫情大流行期間飆升，運輸的貨物價值也隨之增加。 
  • 批評人士時常懷疑 NELB 的盈利能力，因為它過去常常帶著空集裝箱返回中國，而中國政府此前需要補貼其運營。
  • COVID-19 限制了航空運輸；因此，NELB對於維護中歐供應鏈穩定、促進雙方貨物運輸至關重要。
  • NELB開闢了新的樞紐，但俄羅斯聖彼得堡是促進中德貿易的重要商業樞紐。 
俄烏危機後的新亞歐大陸橋
  • 歐洲對俄羅斯的制裁，禁止了公司將貨物運往俄羅斯或通過俄羅斯境內。
  • 中國在烏克蘭危機中的曖昧態度可能會對歐洲的出口產生不利影響，在政治關鍵年中傷害中國的經濟增長，進而損害到習近平的形象。
  • 中國的封鎖減少了消費和出口，阻礙了中國到 2030 年成為世界最大經濟體的目標。海運問題和烏克蘭危機加劇了中國的經濟困境。 
  • 2014 年俄羅斯吞併克里米亞時，中國曾經歷過鐵路貿易中斷，但當前危機的規模對雙方造成的傷害更加嚴重。
  • 由於能源價格上漲、地緣政治擔憂、NELB 禁止通過俄羅斯過境以及供應鏈問
 
Summary:
The New Eurasian Land Bridge (NELB) is an important project under the BRI that connects China and Europe via Kazakhstan, Russia, and Belarus, with around half of the routes passing through Russia. However, European sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine crisis severely impede the project. 

The NELB before the Ukrainian crisis: 
  • Around 78 lines connect 180 cities across 23 European countries. 
  • The number of trips reached almost 14,000 in 2021 and soared during the pandemic, along with the value of goods transported.  
  • Critics doubted the profitability of the NELB since it used to return to China with empty containers, and the PRC government previously needed to subsidize its operations.  
  • The COVID-19 pandemic limited air transport; therefore, the NELB became crucial in maintaining the supply chain stability between China and Europe, facilitating goods transport from both sides. 
  • The NELB opened up new hubs, but St. Petersburg, Russia, was an important commercial hub facilitating China-Germany trade. 
NELB after the Ukrainian crisis: 
  • The European sanctions on Russia prohibited companies from shipping goods to Russia or transiting via Russia. 
  • China’s ambiguity in the Ukrainian crisis may adversely affect European exports, hurting China’s economic growth and damaging Xi’s image amid a politically crucial year.
  • The lockdowns in China reduced consumption and exports in China, hampering China’s aim to be the world’s largest economy by 2030. Maritime shipping problems and the Ukrainian crisis worsens China’s economic predicament. 
  • China experienced railway trade disruption previously due to the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, but the scale of the current crisis hurts both even worse. 
  • Demands for Chinese exports decreased due to higher energy prices, geopolitical concerns, transit prohibition via Russia in NELB, and supply chain problems will setback China’s annual growth target. 
 
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