編輯器
FT: 中國面臨第一次海外債務危機
作者/Author(s): James Kynge, Kathrin Hille, Benjamin Parkin, Jonathan Wheatley
原文來源/Source: Financial Times
日期/Date: 07/21/2022
主題/Key Topics: BRI, overseas debt, economic
摘要:
斯里蘭卡的「一帶一路」項目因財務管理不善、長期延誤和腐敗指控而受到影響。雖然一些一帶一路的項目有利於國家發展，但許多項目是大白象，佔用了巨額貸款，卻沒有產生商業回報，更使國家財政陷入緊張。最終，斯里蘭卡無力償還貸款，再加上COVID-19 和烏克蘭危機造成的基本商品短缺和通貨膨脹，最終導致全國抗議和主權債務違約。儘管斯里蘭卡的失敗並不僅僅是「一帶一路」貸款造成的，但接受「一帶一路」貸款的發展中國家也可能面臨類似的命運。
日期/Date: 07/21/2022
主題/Key Topics: BRI, overseas debt, economic
摘要:
斯里蘭卡的「一帶一路」項目因財務管理不善、長期延誤和腐敗指控而受到影響。雖然一些一帶一路的項目有利於國家發展，但許多項目是大白象，佔用了巨額貸款，卻沒有產生商業回報，更使國家財政陷入緊張。最終，斯里蘭卡無力償還貸款，再加上COVID-19 和烏克蘭危機造成的基本商品短缺和通貨膨脹，最終導致全國抗議和主權債務違約。儘管斯里蘭卡的失敗並不僅僅是「一帶一路」貸款造成的，但接受「一帶一路」貸款的發展中國家也可能面臨類似的命運。
從「世紀工程」到「大救援」：
- 由於多次債務重新談判的累積影響，以及COVID-19大流行病的惡化，中國面臨首次海外債務危機。
- 一開始中國通過BRI貸款慷慨地資助大型基礎設施項目，但後來他也轉而向一些政府提供救援貸款，以防止全面的國際收支危機。
- 儘管救助貸款可以減輕違約，但它並不能解決這些國家的基本金融問題。中國能否長期維持這些救助貸款是一個問題。
- 由於俄烏戰爭、通貨膨脹、中美關係緊張和全球金融形勢嚴峻，發展中國家可能會陷入更嚴重的債務危機。由於同樣的因素，中國正在從BRI貸款融資中退縮。
- 中國曾與法國合作，為尚比亞爭取到了國際貨幣基金組織的救援方案。然而，中國是否願意與其他債權人合作，對其他債務國的債務進行重組，受到了質疑，特別是考慮到中國對IMF和巴黎俱樂部(https://clubdeparis.org/) 實施緊縮措施的爭議。人們對債務重組是否能成功也有疑問，但中國和其他國家必須迅速採取行動，以防止全球債務危機的發生。
Summary:
BRI projects in Sri Lanka was marred with financial mismanagement, lengthy delays, and corruption allegations. While some BRI projects were beneficial for national development, many projects were white elephants that took up huge loans without generating commercial returns, straining the country’s finances. Ultimately, Sri Lanka’s inability to pay loans, along with essential goods shortages and inflation caused by COVID-19 and the Ukrainian crisis, led to a nationwide protest and a sovereign debt default. Although Sri Lanka’s debacle is not solely caused by the BRI loans, developing countries that receive BRI loans may face a similar fate.
BRI projects in Sri Lanka was marred with financial mismanagement, lengthy delays, and corruption allegations. While some BRI projects were beneficial for national development, many projects were white elephants that took up huge loans without generating commercial returns, straining the country’s finances. Ultimately, Sri Lanka’s inability to pay loans, along with essential goods shortages and inflation caused by COVID-19 and the Ukrainian crisis, led to a nationwide protest and a sovereign debt default. Although Sri Lanka’s debacle is not solely caused by the BRI loans, developing countries that receive BRI loans may face a similar fate.
From “Project of the Century” to “The Great Rescue”:
- China faces its first overseas debt crisis due to the cumulative impact of multiple debt renegotiations, worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic.
- China financed large infrastructure projects generously through BRI loans, but it had shifted into providing some governments with rescue loans to prevent all-out balance of payment crises.
- Although rescue loans can mitigate defaults, it does not solve fundamental financial issues in these countries. Whether China can sustain these rescue loans in the long run is a question.
- Developing countries may head into a worse debt crisis due to the Russia-Ukraine War, inflation, US-China tension, and dire global financial conditions. China is stepping back from financing BRI loans due to the same factors.
- China had worked with France to secure rescue packages from the IMF for Zambia. However, whether China is willing to cooperate with other creditors to restructure debt in other debtor countries is questioned, especially given China’s criticism of austerity measures imposed by the IMF and Paris Club. There are also doubts about the success of debt restructuring, but China and the rest must act fast to prevent a global debt crisis.