編輯器
FP: 中國的侵台計劃可能變得更快、更致命
摘要:
作者/Author(s): Bonny Lin and John Culver
網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy
日期/Date: 04/19/2022
主題/Key Topics : Military
摘要:
在看到俄羅斯在烏克蘭的失敗之後，尤其是當一個劣勢的烏克蘭壓倒俄羅斯的軍隊時，中國可能會重新考慮其對台灣強制統一的考慮。儘管與台灣相比，中國擁有優越的軍事實力，但它對成功執行兩棲入侵缺乏信心。其他需要考慮的面向，例如制裁的影響、國際對台灣的支持增加以及台灣強硬的捍衛者，也改變了北京的想法。北京認為它可以通過滲透和削弱台灣的軍事、政治和金融機構來輕易征服台灣，從而降低台灣人的決心和抵抗能力。然而，它可能需要重新思考其方法，特別是優先考慮資訊優勢和快速入侵。
- 中國分析家認為，俄軍最大的失敗在於資訊戰和政治作戰，這對烏克蘭人有利。其他不足之處包括指揮和控制結構不統一，沒有能力處理烏克蘭的無人機，以及缺乏高精度彈藥。
- 中國將切斷台灣與內外部通訊的聯繫，並控制媒體傳播恐怖和虛假信息 。
- 中國將在台灣或美國做好充分準備之前迅速入侵台灣，從而降低外國干預的可能性。
- 雖然沒有必要，但中國可能會利用核升級作為對美國的威懾。
- 中國將提高解放軍夜間作戰能力以減少損失。
- 中國成立了聯勤保障部隊以促進後勤改革，並將推動自力更生地在當地生產軍用零件和設備。
- 中國將對解放軍進行培訓和投資，以增強其未來開展大規模軍事行動的信心和能力。
Summary:
China may rethink its calculus for Taiwan’s forced reunification after watching Russia’s failure in Ukraine, especially when an inferior Ukraine overpowered Russia’s forces. Although China possesses superior military strength compared to Taiwan, it is unconfident in executing successful amphibious invasions. Other considerations, such as the impact of sanctions, increased international support for Taiwan, and tough Taiwanese defenders, also changed Beijing’s considerations. Beijing thinks it can easily conquer Taiwan by infiltrating and weakening its military, political, and financial institutions, thus, reducing Taiwanese resolve and ability to resist. However, it may need to reconsider its approach by prioritizing information dominance and rapid invasion.
China may rethink its calculus for Taiwan’s forced reunification after watching Russia’s failure in Ukraine, especially when an inferior Ukraine overpowered Russia’s forces. Although China possesses superior military strength compared to Taiwan, it is unconfident in executing successful amphibious invasions. Other considerations, such as the impact of sanctions, increased international support for Taiwan, and tough Taiwanese defenders, also changed Beijing’s considerations. Beijing thinks it can easily conquer Taiwan by infiltrating and weakening its military, political, and financial institutions, thus, reducing Taiwanese resolve and ability to resist. However, it may need to reconsider its approach by prioritizing information dominance and rapid invasion.
- Chinese analysts suggest the biggest failure of the Russian army is in information and political warfare, which favors the Ukrainians. Other shortcomings include disjoint command and control structure, incapability of handling Ukrainian drones, and lack of high-precision munitions.
- China will disconnect Taiwan from internal and external communications and control media outlets to spread horror and disinformation.
- China will invade Taiwan quickly before Taiwan or the US can prepare sufficiently against it, decreasing the possibility of foreign intervention.
- Although it is unnecessary, China may use nuclear escalation as a deterrence against the US.
- China will improve PLA’s nighttime operations capabilities to reduce its losses.
- China created the Joint Logistics Support Force to facilitate logistics reform and will push for self-reliance to produce military parts and equipment locally.
- China will train and invest in PLA to instill confidence and improve its ability to undertake large-scale military actions in the future.