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War on the Rocks: 避險:重新評估中國對台灣的投射能力 (Part 1) 

作者/Author(s): Collin Fox, Trevor Phillips-Levine, and Kyle Cregge 

原文來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 09/01/2022 主題/Key Topics : Military Strategy, Logistics, Defense, Civil-Military

摘要:

在二戰中,「希金斯登陸艇」允許美軍進行兩棲登陸,這對盟軍的勝利具有決定性意義。這是一個成功的軍民夥伴關係的例子,中國試圖效仿此種作法來入侵台灣。中國的軍民夥伴關係也促進了後勤,可以縮短入侵時間。這部分總結了中國可能的入侵模式、反入侵方式以及中國工業基礎的重要性。 
 

中國的入侵模式 

  • ​​​​​​​像最近的軍事演習一樣,發動海上封鎖,切斷台灣的能源和供應渠道,以扼殺台灣 
  • 開展海上和空中封鎖行動,以阻止外國干預並獲得區域優勢 
  • 通過聯合空中和兩棲攻擊控制台灣周圍具有重要軍事意義的島嶼,以加強封鎖和後續行動 
  • 然而,中國必須對台灣主要島嶼發動兩棲攻擊以確保其成功 
反入侵計畫 
  • 美國可能首先訴諸外交,以降低對台灣的封鎖,同時鞏固其同盟關係 
  • 只有當台灣或美軍受到直接攻擊時,美國才會進行軍事干預
  • 反入侵部隊將專注於入侵中隊和後勤支援 
  • 但是,中國和聯軍都將遭受重大損失。解放軍可以在台灣站穩腳跟,但不能吞併全島
  • 外國干預可以以高昂的代價否定中國的目標,但中國正在改善其軍事後勤基礎以提高其成功率 
為改進爭取時間 
  • 中國可能會增強其入侵能力,尤其是在兩棲運輸方面 
  • 先前對中國兩棲部隊的分析,否定了中國大規模生產並可以整合到軍隊中的民用船隻的重要性 
  • 中國可以以相當大的工業能力快速生產關鍵的兩棲運輸工具,以滿足短程作戰的需要 
  • 中國認識到戰爭期間的潛在損失,但兩棲攻擊並不是唯一的方法 
Summary: 

 In WWII, the Higgins boats allowed the US forces to conduct amphibious landings, which was decisive for allied victory. It is an instance of a successful civil-military partnership that China seeks to emulate for invading Taiwan. China’s civil-military partnership also facilitated logistics, which can shorten the invasion time. This part summarizes China’s possible pattern of invasion, counter-invasion ways, and the importance of China’s industrial base. 
 

China’s Pattern of Invasion 

  • Launch a maritime blockade like the recent military drills to cut off Taiwan’s access to energy and supplies to choke Taiwan. 
  • Conduct sea- and air- denial operations to stop foreign intervention and gain zonal superiority.  
  • Control militarily significant islands around Taiwan with joint air and amphibious attacks to reinforce the blockade and subsequent operations. 
  • However, China must launch amphibious assaults on Taiwan’s main island to secure its success. 
Counter-invasion Attempts 
  • The US may resort to diplomacy first to de-escalate Taiwan’s blockade while cementing its alliance.  
  • The US will only intervene militarily if Taiwan or US forces are attacked directly. 
  • Counter-invasion forces will focus on the invasion squadron and logistical support. 
  • However, both China and coalition forces will suffer heavy losses. PLA can gain meager footholds in Taiwan but cannot annex the whole island. 
  • Foreign intervention can deny China’s aims at a high cost, but China is improving its military logistical base to increase its success rate. 
Buying time for improvement 
  • China may increase its invasion capabilities, especially in amphibious transportation. 
  • Previous analysis of China’s amphibious forces discredited the importance of civilian ships, which China mass produced and could be integrated into the military. 
  • China can produce critical amphibious transports at a fast pace with its sizeable industrial capacity to suffice the need for short-range operations. 
  • China recognizes the potential loss during the war, but amphibious assault is not the only approach.