作者/Author(s): Thomas Shugart 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 08/23/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、海上封鎖、中國軍事 

摘要：

隨著中國加強對台灣的攻擊威脅，美國及其盟友正在制定措施以嚇阻中國，不讓中國得逞。然而，基於預算、資源和官僚制度的限制，美國可能會選擇其他措施來削減中國的後勤，阻礙中國的軍事和經濟運作。然而，中國早就發現了自己的弱點，開始制定降低風險的措施。 

  • 美國可以通過假設性的方法不讓懸掛中國國旗的船隻停靠在美國及其盟國港口，打擊中國經濟。中國擁有強大的海上力量，大量的船隻懸掛中國國旗。根據船隻懸掛的國旗來扣押船隻，會比查看船隻登記所有權的國家來得更容易。 
  • 懸掛中國國旗的船隻主要分布在第一島鏈周遭，當中美發生衝突時，這些船隻很難被扣留。作為替代選項，美國可以扣押懸掛香港國旗的船隻，它們平均分佈在世界各地。然而，由於香港地位不明確，美國的合作夥伴可能不願採取行動。中國也可能將其船隻轉換為權宜旗，來避開美國的行動。 
  • 美國的海軍艦艇數量彼中國的貿易船隻少很多，海軍艦艇在衝突期間高機率會優先部署在台灣附近。因此，美中衝突一旦爆發，美國可能無法有效執行對中國船隻的扣押行動。
  • 封鎖中國可能也不是一個好方法。中國在海外有一定的軍事存在，解放軍海軍在外保護其海上交通線。此外，大部分進出中國的船隻並非中國擁有，也不一定懸掛中國國旗。中國也可改變物流路線，繞過美國的封鎖。唯一有效的方法是封鎖進出中國港口的路線，但中國擁有極高的防禦能力，可以阻止美國的封鎖行動。 
  • 這種假設的方法雖然合理，但無法有效的嚇阻中國。如果美國和台灣沒有足夠的軍事能力阻止中國，他們將無法避免台海爆發衝突。更糟的是，美台可能會因為對中國施加額外的代價，致使衝突升級。  

 

Summary: 

As China is ramping up its threats to attack Taiwan, the US and its allies are devising measures to deter China or deny China from succeeding. Yet, the US may opt for measures short of war due to budgetary, resources, and bureaucracy constraints by cutting Chinese logistics to impede the Chinese military and economy. However, China has identified its vulnerabilities a long time ago and has taken steps to reduce such risks. 

  • The US could inflict an economic shock on China in a hypothetical method of grounding Chinese-flagged ships in US and allied ports. China has a formidable maritime power with massive vessel ownership and flagged ships. It is easier to detain vessels according to their flag than ownership.  
  • Chinese-flagged ships operate mainly within the First Island Chain and would be hard to detain when a US-China conflict begins. Alternatively, the US could seize Hong Kong-flagged ships, which are evenly distributed worldwide. However, its partners could be reluctant due to the vague status of Hong Kong. China could also transfer its flag to flags of convenience to circumvent the US measures. 
  • The US also has insufficient navy ships compared to Chinese trade vessels, and it may deploy the ships to Taiwan during a conflict. Therefore, it could not effectively enforce the seizure of Chinese ships when a war broke out. 
  • A blockade of China may not work. China has some military presence overseas, allowing the PLA navy to secure its sea lines of communications. Further, most ships transiting into and from China are not Chinese-owned or flagged. China could also reroute its logistics away from the US blockade. The only credible option is to block access to Chinese ports, but China has a credible defense to stop the US. 
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