作者/Author(s): Justin Sherman 

網站來源/Source: Council on Foreign Relations 

日期/Date: 08/12/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 科技、俄羅斯、中國 


摘要：
冷戰結束後，人們曾看好俄羅斯成為未來的科技巨人。然而，自 2000年代後期以來，俄羅斯逐漸與全球數位連線脫軌，並且更加依賴中國。 
  • 俄羅斯的數位孤立源於其對西方技術的懷疑，認為西方技術用於進行間諜活動、策劃影響行動和煽動革命。俄羅斯的安全鷹派也擔心網路有助於推動民主和自由思想，對俄羅斯的政權安全構成威脅。 
  • 2014 年，普丁宣佈要減少俄羅斯對外國技術的依賴，開發本土的替代方案，但結果好壞參半。俄羅斯的數位孤立在2022年入侵烏克蘭時達到頂點，但這種孤立方式也帶來了負面影響。
  1. 許多IT專家和企業離開了俄羅斯，西方也制裁限制俄羅斯獲取技術硬體的能力，迫使俄羅斯依賴中間人。 
  2. 然而，俄羅斯成功開發了自動軟體系統來取代西方技術，並將這些系統融入其原有的硬體設備中。 
  • 雖然俄羅斯在技術獨立方面取得了一些進展，但它對中國的依賴也不斷提升。 
  1. 俄羅斯在晶片供應方面必須依賴中國和香港，比例高達90%。
  2. 中國智慧手機銷售商也在2023年占據了俄羅斯市場的領先地位。 
  3. 然而，有些中國科技公司擔心遭到西方制裁，對進一步投資俄羅斯的意願不高。 
  • 俄羅斯一向避免在數位領域過度依賴任何一個國家。俄羅斯的安全專家甚至建議政府減輕來自中國間諜的風險。 
  • 西方可以利用公開來源情報，查明俄羅斯依賴中國科技產品和服務的脆弱點，並加以利用。 
Summary: 
Russia was once a prospective technology giant after the Cold War. However, since the late 200s, Russia has become increasingly isolated from global digital connectivity and more dependent on China.
  • Russia's digital isolation originated from its suspicion of Western technologies for conducting espionage, engineering influence operations, and inciting revolution. Russian security hardliners are also concerned about the internet's potential for fostering democracy and liberal thoughts, which is a threat to Russia's regime security. 
  • In 2014, Putin declared the need to reduce Russia's dependence on foreign technologies and devise domestic alternatives, but with mixed results. Russia's digital isolation came near in its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, albeit in a harmful way.  
  1. Many IT specialists and businesses left Russia, while Western sanctions limited Russia's ability to procure technology hardware or force Russia to rely on intermediaries.  
  2. However, Russia successfully developed indigenous software systems to replace Western ones and incorporated the system into its hardware. 
  • Russia saw some progress in its tech independence but also increased its dependence on China. 
  1. Russia must rely on China and Hong Kong for chip supplies, which account for around 90%. 
  2. Chinese smartphone sellers also claimed top spots in the Russian market in 2023. 
  3. However, some Chinese tech companies are reluctant to invest more in Russia due to fear of Western sanctions. 
  • Yet, Russia has the habit of not being overly digitally dependent on any one foreign country. Russian security experts even recommended the government mitigate espionage risks from China. 
  • The West could use open-source intelligence to pinpoint Russia's vulnerabilities in relying on Chinese tech products and services and exploit them. 
 
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