作者/Author(s): Mackenzie Eaglen 

網站來源/Source: Real Clear Defense 

日期/Date: 08/22/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、印太地區、中國


摘要：
雖然美國目前仍坐穩全球軍事霸主地位，但中國的區域軍事投射能力可在印太地區與美國一較高下。中國也展示了大規模生產現代軍事武器的能力。美國應該謹慎應對美中軍事議題，因為中國明確表示要打造一支能夠在戰爭中戰勝美軍的世界級解放軍。
  • 美國企業研究所（AEI）預測，2022年中國實際軍事支出與美國國防預算相當，超過中國官方數字至少三倍，同時也遠超所有印太地區國家，甚至是某些美國密切盟友的五倍。 
  • 中國現在擁有全球最大的陸地、海上和地面火箭力量，同時也在建造精密的高超音速飛彈系統，提高核武器庫存。 
  • 在中國擴充軍力的同時，美國卻反其道而行，甚至面臨平衡優先順序的問題。美國需要對抗伊朗和俄羅斯等對手。雖然美國仍擁有整體軍事優勢，但中國只需要將力量集中在距離較近且目標精準的範圍內。 
  • 因此，中國對美國的印太盟友使用武力的意願和頻率皆有提高。美國已經轉移了部分軍力來對抗中國的侵略，但速度緩慢且軍力不平衡。中東和烏克蘭的衝突也迫使美國的軍事資源捉襟見肘。 
  • 中國的軍事預算凸顯了美國聯盟在印太地區的關鍵作用。美國透過 QUAD、AUKUS 及數個雙邊軍事協定顯示其對聯盟的承諾。
  • 華盛頓近期的軍事預算增加幅度不高，這反過來限制了軍事部門的決策和選擇。參議院曾努力增加國防經費，以提高在亞洲的嚇阻力，但美國必須做更多工作，強調對印太地區的承諾。 
 
Summary: 
Although the US still enjoys global military supremacy, China's regional military projection could match the US in the Indo-Pacific region. China also showed the ability to produce modern military capabilities at a large size and scale. The US should be cautious because China is unequivocal in creating a world-class PLA that could win against the US military in wars.
  • AEI predicted China's actual military spending was similar to the US defense budget in 2022, more than thrice of Chinese official numbers. The figures dwarf all Indo-Pacific countries and even outspend US close partners five times. 
  • China now has the largest global land, maritime, and ground-based rocket force. China is also building sophisticated hypersonic missile systems and increasing its nuclear weapons inventory. 
  • While China is expanding its military, the US is moving the other way around. Moreover, the US is also facing problems in balancing its priorities because it needs to counter other adversaries such as Iran and Russia. Although the US still has an overall military advantage, China only needs to focus its assets within its proximity and narrow objectives. 
  • Consequently, China is increasingly willing to use force against US Indo-Pacific allies. The US had shifted some of its forces to counter Chinese aggression, but it was slow and uneven. Conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine also stretched US military resources to their limit. 
  • Chinese military budget indicated the crucial role of the US alliances in the Indo-Pacific. The US has demonstrated its commitment to alliances through the QUAD, AUKUS, and several bilateral military agreements. 
  • Washington's recent military budget increased only a little, limiting the decisions and choices of its services. The Senate had worked to increase defense funding to increase deterrence in Asia, but the US must do more to show its commitment in the region. 
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