作者/Author(s): Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 11/25/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 灰色地帶作戰、莫斯科、影子艦隊 


摘要：
自九月中以來，有些歐洲國家陸續遭受無人機侵入事件，他們指控俄羅斯是幕後主使。俄羅斯並未從境內發射這些無人機，它們是由俄羅斯龐大的影子艦隊操控飛行。因此，歐洲國家沒有確切證據證明俄羅斯的不法行為。這些由俄羅斯影子艦隊協助的無人機入侵行動，代表了一種混合戰的全新形式，以及影子船隊角色擴張的趨勢。

俄羅斯的混合戰及影子艦隊 
  • 自2024年初，俄羅斯在西歐持續發動破壞性攻擊。儘管西歐地區已加強安全防範，但這只有減緩而沒有完全停止這種攻擊。 
  • 俄羅斯自蘇聯時期便利用民用船隻執行海上行動，包括綁架、蒐集情報、招募情報資產、破壞敵方設施等任務。雖然俄羅斯的海軍破壞行動在蘇聯解體後立即停擺，但在普丁領導下，其訓練與體制框架得以重整，並在俄烏戰爭中發揮了重要作用。 
  • 在戰爭過程中，俄羅斯隱蔽行動機構發展出利用海上能力的新型破壞手段。這些攻擊合理之處在於，即便俄羅斯在西歐的情報資產減少，它仍能利用西歐漫長的海岸線。 
  • 俄羅斯的影子艦隊不僅對支撐其經濟命脈至關重要，更日益成為俄羅斯破壞行動的核心力量。這些船隻之所以被稱為「影子」，在於它們能隱匿行蹤、與海上其他船隻進行貿易往來，並將利潤轉移回俄羅斯。  
  • 自 2023 年起，部分與俄羅斯有關聯的船隻曾切斷海底通訊電纜與天然氣管道，並聲稱這些是事故。西歐情報機構的報告亦指出，這支影子艦隊與莫斯科各情報部門的合作十分密切。 
  • 隨著無人機技術的進步，影子艦隊成為完美的掩護與發射平台，而烏克蘭戰場則為無人機操作員提供了訓練場。俄羅斯將特工部署於幽靈艦隊，並利用無人機破壞西歐地區。這些入侵行動無需精準定位或鎖定特定目標，只要擾亂歐洲領空或軍事設施即可。這些行動也標誌著俄羅斯混合戰的新時代。
  • 西方曾試圖對俄羅斯影子船隊實施制裁措施，但因證據不足導致效果有限。這些影子艦隊的船隻無法在實施制裁的國家靠港，卻能輕鬆停泊於其他未實施制裁的國家。 
 
Summary: 
Some European countries experienced drone incursions since mid-September and accused Russia as the mastermind behind these incidents. Russia did not launch these drones from its territory; they were flown from Russia’s large shadow fleet, and consequently, European countries do not have definite proof of Russia’s mischief. These drone incursions assisted by Russia’s shadow fleet represents a new form of hybrid warfare and the expanded role of the shadow fleet. 

Russia’s Hybrid Warfare and Shadow Fleet 
  • Russia conducted subversive attacks in Western Europe since early 2024. Despite heightened security in Western Europe, these attacks continued at a slower pace. 
  • Russia had conducted seaborne operations using civilian ships since the Soviet era for kidnapping, collecting intelligence, recruiting intelligence assets, sabotaging enemies, and others. Although Russia’s naval sabotage operations paused right after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it’s training and institutional framework regrouped under Putin’s leadership and played a significant role in its war with Ukraine. 
  • Over the course of its war with Ukraine, Russian covert services had developed novel subversions using seaborne capabilities. These attacks are rational because Russia could exploit Western European countries coastlines in spite of reduced intelligence assets in these countries.  
  • Russia’s shadow fleet is not only critical to support its economic lifeblood, but it had also become increasingly important to Russia’s sabotage attacks. These ships are “shadow” because they could mask their presence, conduct trade with other ships on the sea, and transfer the profits back to Russia.  
  • Since 2023, some Russia-linked ships had severed undersea telecommunication cables and gas pipelines and claimed them as accidents. Reports from Western Europe intelligence community also suggests the shadow fleet works closely with Moscow’s different intelligence branches. 
  • With the improvement of drone technologies, the shadow fleet as a perfect cover and a launching pad, and the Ukraine battlefield provides a training ground for drone operators, Russia placed agents on its shadow fleet to conduct sabotage in Western Europe using drones. The incursions do not need to be accurate or have specific targets; they simply only need to disrupt Europe’s airspace or military installations. These operations also marked a new era of Russia’s hybrid warfare. 
  • The West had tried to enforce sanctions measures against the Russian shadow fleet, but they were ineffective due to lack of evidence. Although these ships could not port call in sanctioning countries, they could simply dock at other non-sanctioning countries. Europe had made improvements in anti-drone measures, but they are still devising additional punishments against the shadow fleet. 
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