作者/Author(s): Hal Brands 

網站來源/Source: American Enterprise Institute 

日期/Date: 11/13/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、美中、跨國企業 


摘要：
貿易戰、大國競爭與區域衝突正把跨國企業捲入漩渦。在這場全球動盪中，跨國公司必須為全新的地緣政治現實做好準備。 
  • 冷戰後在友善環境下所形成的全球化已一去不復返。不同意識形態國家間的大國競爭與修正主義國家的崛起再度浮現。區域危機與西方制裁使中、俄、伊、北韓形成「惡霸四國」（CRINK）專制修正主義國家陣營日益緊密。如今國際秩序前景未明，全球風險居高不下，對私人企業造成重大影響。 
  • 全球經濟碎片化與追求經濟自給自足的趨勢，正在重塑全球貿易格局。跨國企業在不久的將來，可能面臨在美國、中國二選一，或兩者皆不做生意的抉擇。 
  • 隨著美國重新定義其同盟關係，跨國企業的母國政府可能要求它們大規模投資美國，並接受不公平的貿易協議以換取美國的安全保證。因此，隨著各國政府逐步疏遠美國、尋求新同盟或探索獲取核武器的可能性，對沖風險正成為新常態。未來，「避險」(hedging) 將成為新常態，各國逐漸與美國保持距離、尋找新的聯盟，甚至考慮發展核武。
  • 強人政治而非傳統外交，正在成為國際政治的新指導原則，使企業策略面臨更多法律與監管的不確定性。 
  • 科技曾是促進全球和平與繁榮的力量，如今卻越來越成為國力的核心指標，並加劇美中之間的緊張。 
  • 雖然目前美中雙方表面上處於貿易休兵，但雙方仍在激烈競爭科技領導權。雙方都無法完全脫鉤，但因戰略不信任，雙方都在準備脫鉤，這將重塑全球供應鏈，並造成國際市場間歇性的震盪。
  • 美國的全球霸權憑藉其經濟實力、先進人工智慧的主導地位及軍事影響力得以延續。然而，美國已對維護新自由主義經濟與政治秩序失去興趣，交易主義優先於價值觀。美國若選擇脫鉤，可能動搖世界穩定，其修正主義行為更可能惡化動盪。 
  • 國際秩序的動盪實為雙面刃。地緣政治緊張局勢雖擾亂全球經濟，但秩序重整亦可能為各國政府與企業創造新契機。因此，企業或需網羅地緣政治專家，方能駕馭這段動盪時期。 
Summary: 
Trade wars, great-power competition, and regional conflicts dragged multinational companies into the fray. Amid this chaos, multinationals must brace themselves for the new geopolitical realities. 
  • Gone are the days of post-Cold War globalization under a benevolent environment. Great power competition between states with different ideologies and the rise of revisionist states have returned. Furthermore, regional crises and Western sanctions draw autocratic revisionists, consisting of the CRINK countries, closer. While the future of the international order is unclear, global risks will remain high, with significant effects on private companies. 
  • Global economic fragmentation and the pursuit of economic self-sufficiency had rewired global trade. Multinationals may have to choose to do business in the US, in China, or in neither in the near future. 
  • As the US is redefining its alliances, the home government of multinational firms may compel them to invest massively in the US and accept unfair trade deals in exchange for US security guarantees. Consequently, hedging becomes a new normal as governments are distancing themselves from the US slowly, looking for new alliances, or exploring the possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons. 
  • Strongman politics, rather than traditional diplomacy, becomes a new guiding principle in international politics, making corporate strategy more difficult as they face more unpredictability in legal and regulatory frameworks. 
  • Technology used to foster global peace and prosperity, but it is now increasingly defining national power and exacerbating tensions between the US and China. 
  • Despite an apparent trade truce between the US and China, the two countries are still competing fiercely to secure technological leadership. Neither side has found a way to decouple completely, but they are preparing to do so due to strategic mistrust. Consequently, it will remake global supply chains and cause occasional shocks in the international markets. 
  • The US's global power persists through its economic heft, dominance in advanced AI, and military reach. However, it has lost interest in preserving the neoliberal economy and political order, prioritizing transactionalism over values. A disengaged US may destabilize the world, and its revisionism may worsen the instability. 
  • Volatility in the international order is two sides of a coin. While geopolitical tensions disrupt the world economy, a reordering may foster new opportunities for governments and firms. Consequently, firms may need to equip themselves with geopolitical experts to navigate a turbulent period. 
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