作者/Author(s): Mira Rapp-Hooper 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 10/29/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 外交、經濟、美中 


摘要：
雖然美國已作出重大讓步、而北京僅作出最低限度回應，川普短期內仍可能持續推動美中關係和緩。然而，美中關係很難重來，任何川習協議都極可能是暫時的。 
為何川習協議是暫時性的？ 
  • 雖然川普已撤銷部分針對中國的限制措施，但國會與行政部門正擬定新方案，供川普隨時啟用，以防中國違背承諾。 
  • 就像川普1.0時期，北京恐不會完全履行對華府的承諾，並會持續測試美國維護印太穩定的決心。 
  • 因此，美中關係並非邁向緩和，而是持續維持競爭狀態，雙方在各種可能的領域中不斷試圖牽制對方。如今任何協議都不是定局，頂多只會履行對自身有利的部分。 
現在不是自滿的時候 
  • 一項良好的美中協議確實能造福雙方，也能在這個動盪時期降低地緣政治競爭升級的風險。
  • 然而，川普不應為了追求短期、狹隘的政治勝利，而犧牲長期穩定及其帶來的戰略利益。一旦美國讓步，便難以重拾技術領導地位與全球聲譽。更甚者，這也只會助長中國更為強勢的行為。 
  • 川普曾嘗試以個人外交手段對待強人領袖，最典型的例子就是普丁。他提出要修補美俄關係、解除制裁與減少對烏克蘭援助來換取停戰。然而局勢未見轉變，美俄關係反而更加疏離。川普不應在習近平身上重蹈覆轍，而應意識到維護美國主導、由美國建立的國際秩序已是刻不容緩。 
Summary: 
Trump may continue his rapprochement with Beijing in the short term, despite the US making significant concessions, while Beijing reciprocates minimally. Furthermore, a reset in US-China relations is doubtful, and any Trump-Xi deal is likely to be temporary. 

Why a Trump Xi-Deal is Temporary? 
  • Although Trump had withdrawn some restrictive measures against China, the Congress and executive branches are devising new measures for Trump to use at any time or in case China backtracks on its promises. 
  • As during the first Trump administration, Beijing may not fully oblige by the promises it made to the US and continue to test Washington's resolve in maintaining Indo-Pacific stability. 
  • Therefore, instead of a detente, the US and China remain locked in a state of competition, with both sides continually trying to outmaneuver one another whenever possible. Any deals made by both sides now are not conclusive or are only partially fulfilled in their best interests. 
Not the Best Time to be Complacent 
  • A good deal between Beijing and Washington will benefit both sides and reduce the prospects of escalation in geopolitical competition during a tumultuous period. 
  • However, Trump should not abandon long-term stability and its advantages to pursue narrow, short-term wins. It is difficult for the US to regain its technological leadership and global reputation once it concedes them. Moreover, it will also fuel a more assertive Chinese behavior. 
  • Trump had tried personal diplomacy with a strongman, as seen with Putin. They talked about repairing US-Russian relations and stopping the war in Ukraine in exchange for sanctions relief and reducing US support for Kyiv. Yet, nothing changed, and the US and Russia drifted further since then. Trump should not repeat the same mistake with Xi and recognize the urgency in protecting the international order that the US created and maintained. 
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