作者/Author(s): Stephen Wertheim 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 10/28/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords:  美中台關係、台灣、兩岸關係


摘要：
台海戰爭風險日益升高，這迫切要求美國總統川普與中國國家主席習近平採取果斷行動。恢復區域穩定的最有效作法，是雙方展現對彼此立場的高度尊重。 
緊張局勢惡化的根源與背景  
  • 目前台海緊張情勢已達危險程度。中國正在台灣海峽加大軍事活動，發動大規模封鎖演習，並實施日常越界行動，這樣的惡性循環恐最終引爆災難性的戰爭。 
  • 在賴清德總統的領導下，台灣以新的方式持續主張主權，但這也導致台海風險更加複雜。賴總統持續拉開與中國間的距離，不僅削弱北京和平統一的前景，更激怒了北京當局。 
  • 美國也難辭其咎，他們削弱了「一中政策」的部分元素，例如取消高層互訪限制，且拜登總統多次公開發言，打破了美國長期以來在軍事防衛問題上的「戰略模糊」原則。 
相互保證穩定 
  • 日益不穩的台海情勢顯示，美中雙方有必要啟動新的工作層級會談，制定新的聯合公報或對等聲明，以達成相互保證的穩定。 
  • 最簡單的協議應該是華府承諾不支持台灣獨立，也不排除和平統一的可能；作為交換，北京保證不以武力為手段，並降低軍事嚇阻。 
  • 美方的關鍵保證（約束台北、安撫北京） 
  1. ​​​​​​​美國應明確表示，現在與未來都不會支持台灣單方面宣布獨立，並將此承諾長期化，以防止台北企圖造成既成事實。 
  2. 同時，美方應首次在正式高層聲明中表明：只要是「和平、非脅迫手段、且為兩岸人民所能接受」的結果，美國願意接受和平統一的結局。 
  • ​​​​​​​中方的關鍵讓步（減少脅迫） 
  1. ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​中國應公開宣布，對兩岸統一不設任何時間線，並承諾以和平方式追求統一。
  2. 中國必須同意減少軍事活動，具體措施包括恢復海峽中線作為默契緩衝區，終止自裴洛西2022年訪台後高頻率的軍機、軍艦擾台行動，並減少軍事演習的次數與規模。 
若雙方能成功交換這些保證，將是美國現今能採取最關鍵的行動，不僅能阻止兩岸敵意進一步升溫，也能顯著降低大國戰爭的風險。 
 
Summary:
The escalating risk of war over Taiwan necessitates bold action by U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The most effective approach to restoring stability is for both nations to demonstrate greater respect for each other's stances. 

The Problem and Context of Spiraling Tensions 
  • Tensions have reached dangerous heights because China is militarizing the Taiwan Strait, launching extensive blockade simulations, and conducting daily incursions. This spiral could lead to a cataclysmic war. 
  • The risk is compounded by Taiwan, under President Lai, asserting its sovereignty in new ways. Lai has consistently distanced Taiwan from China with a widening gap, which reduced the prospects of peaceful unification for the Beijing government and infuriate it. 
  • The U.S. has contributed by weakening aspects of its "one China" policy, including scrapping restrictions on high-level contacts and President Biden contradicting customary ambiguity regarding military defense of the island. 
Mutually Assured Stability 
  • The increasingly destabilizing situation in the Taiwan Strait calls for new working-level talks between the U.S and China to formulate a new joint communiqué or parallel statements aiming for mutually assured stability. 
  • The simplest form of bargain is that Washington assures it will not support Taiwan's independence or rule out peaceful unification. In exchange, Beijing assures it will avoid force and ease military intimidation. 
  • Key U.S. Assurances (Restraining Taipei and Reassuring Beijing) 
  1. ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​The U.S. should affirm that it does not and will not support Taiwan's unilateral declaration of independence, extending this commitment indefinitely to deter Taipei from pursuing a fait accompli. 
  2. The U.S. should offer an assurance that it welcomes any peaceful resolution, including, for the first time in a formal high-level statement, a peaceful unification as a tolerable outcome. However, the U.S. must include clauses such as the resolution being reached through peaceful means, free from coercion, and acceptable to the people on both sides.
  • Key Chinese Concessions (Reducing Coercion) 
  1. China should publicly state that it has no deadline for achieving reunification with Taiwan and will pursue it through peaceful means.  
  2. China must agree to reduce military activities, specifically by restoring the median line of the strait as a tacit buffer, thus ending incursions that ramped up after Pelosi's 2022 visit. China should also stop intruding into Taiwan's contiguous zone and hold fewer/smaller military exercises. 
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