作者/Author(s): Elizabeth Economy 

網站來源/Source: Freedom Frequency by Hoover Institution 

日期/Date: 10/06/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 美中關係、美國優先、中國


摘要：
二戰以後的每一位美國總統在位期間，幾乎都有明確且一致的對中政策，只是每位總統風格各不相同，而川普是唯一的例外。川普一方面聲稱與習近平關係良好，另一方面其對華政策卻在親中與反中之間搖擺不定。他以「美國優先」為藉口合理化這些矛盾的做法，但這種混亂的外交路線實際上是一種自我毀滅，可能削弱美國的長期戰略利益，甚至壯大中國的影響力。

川普背棄了自由制度主義 
  • 歷任美國總統普遍接受美國作為霸權國家的角色，並理解維護自身所建立的國際秩序有其長遠利益。相較之下，川普視雙邊與多邊合作為昂貴的負擔。因此，他削弱了美國在全球投射影響力的主要工具，如國際開發署（USAID）與美國國際媒體署（USAGM），並削減國務院的功能。同時，川普也讓美國退出多個重要國際組織。 
  • 當川普帶領美國逐漸撤離全球舞台時，北京並未袖手旁觀。中國藉機塑造自己是「更可靠的國際力量」，推動多項新的國際合作倡議，以拓展其全球政治與經濟利益。 
  • 川普背棄自由制度主義，為中國取代美國成為全球領導者提供了絕佳機會，也削弱了美國在政治價值與治理模式上的競爭力。 
自毀長城的科技政策 
  • 白宮採取「一刀切」策略制定貿易與外交政策談判方針，，結果適得其反。當中國運用稀土出口作為反制工具時，美國不得不在貿易戰中退讓。
  • 雖然川普試圖維持美國全球科技領導地位，但撤銷針對中國的先進半導體出口限制與其他科技政策，卻與他的目標相互矛盾。 
  • 更甚者，川普政府削減了對公私研究機構的資助，這些機構正是美國科技競爭力的核心。 
  • 五角大廈積極應對中國在亞洲的霸權崛起，努力維持印太地區的現狀，其中一項重要措施便是降低對中國稀土原料的依賴。然而，川普同時對印太盟友加徵關稅，甚至威脅要求支付更多「保護費」，這些舉措反而削弱了五角大廈的戰略目標。 
尋求政策連貫性   
  • 川普2.0中唯一一致的政策口號仍是「美國優先」。但川普如今孤立盟友、拒絕多邊主義的做法，只會加速中國邁向全球主導地位的步伐。 
  • 更糟的是，這種自毀長城的外交與矛盾的對中政策，反而削弱了美國有效反制北京影響力的能力。 
  • 川普或許能藉由「美國優先」策略取得某些短期的戰術勝利，但從長遠來看，這將侵蝕美國的國家安全、科技領先地位與全球影響力。
 
Summary: 
Despite some differences, every US president after World War II had a clear and coherent China policy, except Trump. While Trump claimed to have a good relationship with Xi, his policies towards China oscillated between being China-friendly and China-unfavorable. Trump justified his conflicting China policy as America First. However, his confusing foreign policy directive is self-sabotaging, which could undermine the US's long-term strategic interests and strengthen China's influence. 
Trump's Abandonment of Liberal Institutionalism 
  • Previous US presidents embraced the US hegemonic role and understood the benefits of maintaining the international order that it created. In contrast, Trump viewed bilateral and multilateral cooperation as costly diversions. Consequently, Trump eviscerated the US's primary instruments for projecting global influence, such as USAID and the US Agency for Global Media, and weakened the State Department's function. Trump also withdrew the US from important international organizations. 
  • Beijing did not sit idly when Trump withdrew the US from the world. China presented itself as the more reliable international power and initiated new international cooperation initiatives to advance its global political and economic interests. 
  • Trump's abandonment of liberal institutions presents China with an opportunity to displace the US as a global leader and diminish the US's competitiveness in terms of political values and governance models. 
Self-Defeating Technology Policies 
  • The White House tailored its trade and foreign policy negotiations based on a "one size fits all" approach, which spectacularly backfired when China leveraged its rare earth exports to compel the US to back down in its trade war. 
  • Although Trump seeks to preserve the US position as a global technology leader, his policies, especially the rescission of his own advanced semiconductor export restrictions against China, have undermined his goals. 
  • Moreover, the Trump administration had cut funding to public and private research institutions, which were the core of the US technology competitiveness. 
  • The Pentagon has been proactive in countering China's ascension to a hegemonic power in Asia and maintaining the status quo in the Indo-Pacific. One crucial action was reducing reliance on Chinese rare-earth inputs. However, penalizing Indo-Pacific allies with tariffs and coercing them to pay more for security guarantees only undermines the Pentagon's objectives. 
Searching for Coherence 
  • The only coherent policy in the second Trump administration is "America First." However, the administration's policies of isolating allies and abandoning multilateralism only accelerate China's path to global dominance.  
  • Furthermore, the administration's self-sabotaging policies and incoherent China policy only undermine the US's ability to counter Beijing's influence.  
  • While Trump may score some tactical victories with his "America First" approach, it will fundamentally erode the US's national security, technology leadership, and global influence. 
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