作者/Author(s): Desmond Lachman 

網站來源/Source: American Enterprise Institute 

日期/Date: 10/22/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、川普、中國 


摘要：
若川普曾注意孫子兵法名言——「知彼知己，百戰不殆」，他在發動對中關稅戰時，就不會高估美國的實力、低估中國的籌碼。孫子兵法另一句關鍵警句：「不知彼，不知己，每戰必殆」，則貼切描繪了川普如今的困境。
  • 川普的第一個錯誤，是忽視了中國歷史中「絕不容許領導人被外國勢力欺凌」的文化脈絡。經歷「百年國恥」之後，這種民族敘事更加強烈，中國人無法接受向外國低頭的行為，寧可承受代價也不願屈服。 
  • 川普也低估了中國的經濟槓桿能力，特別是稀土礦與磁材生產等對現代科技至關重要的資源。 
  • 川普的另一個疏失，是忽略了中國經濟的韌性與高科技產業的成長能力，尤其中國還面臨先進晶片與製程設備出口限制。雖然中國內部經濟疲軟，但他們仍成功將出口市場從美國轉向其他國家，甚至有望達成2025年經濟成長目標。 
  • 另一方面，習近平正確預判中國比美國更能承受經濟壓力，這一點從川普在多次升高貿易戰後又撤回的反覆行為中可見端倪。 
  • 川普不太可能從APEC間的川習會晤中得到實質性讓步。雙方極可能只是達成延長版的休戰協議，習近平同意暫緩稀土出口管制，而川普則降低部分對中商品的關稅。 
Summary: 
If Trump had paid attention to Sun Tzu's famous mantra, "know your enemy and know thyself, win fearlessly (知彼知己，百戰不殆)," he would not have overestimated the US's strength and underestimated China's leverage when he launched a tariff war against China. A critical follow-up of Sun Tzu's phrase: "not knowing your enemy and yourself, lose in every combat (不知彼，不知己，每戰必殆)," which paints the picture of Trump's current predicaments. 
  • The first mistake that Trump made was to overlook the history of China that disallows a Chinese leader to be perceived as being bullied by a foreign power. This narrative was powerful after its "century of humiliation," compelling China to shoulder the consequences instead of kowtowing to foreign coercion. 
  •  Trump also underestimated China's economic leverage, particularly in the production of rare earth minerals and magnets, which are crucial to modern technologies. 
  • China's economic resilience and ability to grow its high-technology sector despite export controls on advanced semiconductor chips and chipmaking equipment are another oversight for Trump. Although China's domestic economy is sluggish, it managed to divert its exports from the US to other countries and is on track to meet its economic growth target for 2025. 
  • On the Chinese side, Xi correctly anticipated that China could tolerate economic pressure more than the US, as evidenced by Trump's repeated U-turns after escalating the trade war. 
  • It is unlikely that Trump got significant concessions from Xi during their meeting in APEC. The agreement between them is likely an extended truce, as Xi agreed to pause China's rare earth export controls, while Trump had scaled back his tariffs on Chinese products. 
 
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