作者/Author(s): Marvin Park and David Sacks 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 10/22/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 兩岸關係、台灣、川習會


一樁壞交易？ 
  • 習近平可能在會談中迫使川普改變美國對台政策，顛覆華府長期以來對台保持的中立立場。若此情境發生，將推翻美國數十年來維繫台海和平的政策基石，並強化外界對「美國在中國與台灣問題上皆不可靠」的觀感，導致部分台灣人認為應與北京談判以爭取最佳條件。再加上中國日益囂張的姿態，，台灣將被逼入更為孤立的處境，與國際社會的聯繫愈發薄弱。 
  • 台灣軍力無法單獨對抗解放軍，目前唯一願意提供實質支持的仍是美國。因此，只要美台安全夥伴關係有所削弱，就可能動搖嚇阻中國的效果，動搖台灣民眾對抗入侵能力的信心。 
  • 川普2.0上任的第一年，就讓台灣及美國在印太地區的盟友對美方支持的可信度產生憂慮。若美國對台支持減少，其他國家將更不願與台北深化關係，這反而會讓中國有機可乘，阻止區域國家與台灣合作。 
交易的藝術 
  • 美國仍有機會與中國達成一項有利協議，也就是在不犧牲台灣利益的前提下，緩和台海緊張局勢。 
  • 主要目標是恢復到2022年裴洛西訪台前的「現狀」，並說服北京縮減對台軍事與灰色地帶脅迫行動。 
  • 作為交換，美國可考慮降低在區域內的整體軍事擴張，調整成以防禦為主的行動，避免激怒中國。
  • 美國也可提議建立「實質緩衝區」，以便雙方區分例行軍演與軍力集結，既可降低衝突風險，又能維持必要的嚇阻。 
  • 美中雙方應審慎處理有關台灣法律地位的討論。 
  • 這些措施將降低局勢升級的風險，並恢復台灣海峽的穩定。 
A Bad Deal? 
  • Xi may compel Trump to shift the US's policy on Taiwan during the upcoming talks, thereby upending Washington's long-standing position on Taiwan. If this scenario occurs, it will topple the decade-long US neutrality that has helped maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait. Furthermore, it will reinforce claims that the US was unreliable in China and Taiwan, so the Taiwanese should negotiate the best settlement with Beijing. Along with China's brazenness, it will push Taiwan further into a corner and isolate the island further from the international community. 
  • Taiwan's military is incapable of facing the PLA alone, with only the US willing to support it. Therefore, any reduction in the US security partnership with Taiwan could erode deterrence against China and shake Taiwanese confidence in their ability to counter an invasion. 
  • Trump's actions in the first year of his second tenure have already caused anxiety in Taiwan and the US's Indo-Pacific allies about the credibility of US support. If US support for Taiwan declines, other countries may feel they have fewer opportunities to foster closer ties with Taipei, giving China the chance to prevent regional neighbors from cooperating with Taiwan. 
The Art of the Deal 
  • The US has the potential to secure a favorable agreement with China that alleviates tensions across the Taiwan Strait without compromising Taiwan's interests. 
  • The primary objectives are to restore the status quo that existed before Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022 and persuade Beijing to scale down on its military and gray-zone coercion around Taiwan.  
  • In exchange, the US would reduce its overall military buildup in the region and recalibrate its operations to pursue defensive objectives, to avoid provoking China. 
  • The United States should consider proposing the establishment of a practical buffer zone that allows both parties to distinguish between regular exercises and military buildup, thereby reducing the risk of conflict while maintaining deterrence. 
  • The United States and China should consider exercising caution in their discussions regarding Taiwan's legal status. 
  • These steps would mitigate the chances of escalation and restore stability in the Taiwan Strait. 
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