作者/Author(s): Marvin Park and David Sacks 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 10/22/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 兩岸關係、台灣、川習會 


摘要：
川普與習近平即將在APEC論壇上會面。雖然主要聚焦雙邊貿易議題，但雙方也可能考慮重啟關係，而這場會晤的結果或將決定台灣的命運與華府對台海問題的立場，任何把台灣當成交易籌碼的協議，只會讓區域更加動盪。然而，川普也可利用自身的籌碼反制中國的敵意，恢復台海和平常態，降低誤判風險並確保台灣的安全。 

事情是如何發展到這一步的？ 
  • 習近平可能要求川普減少對台灣的支援，以換取更好的市場准入及增加採購美國商品。北京當局認為台灣與美國是區域動盪的主要根源，但事實上是北京發動更侵略的行動、威脅台灣並將台灣排除於全球政治體系之外。 
  • 兩岸關係在馬英九執政期間相對和緩，但中國持續擴張軍力，台灣軍力卻停滯不前，導致雙方軍事差距迅速擴大。
  • 蔡英文試圖緩和與中國的緊張關係，但因拒絕「九二共識」而未能成功，這原本是兩岸關係的重要基石，而蔡政府所提出的替代架構無法取得北京的同意。
  • 當裴洛西訪台時，兩岸關係更是急劇惡化，北京視此訪為挑釁，隨後加大對台軍事演習的頻率與規模，並以非軍事手段施壓台灣。 
  • 賴清德上任後，兩岸關係持續惡化。北京對賴總統的強硬立場表現出強烈不滿，認為其兩岸政策與立場比歷任總統更為強硬。北京不太可能對賴政府釋出善意，並將持續利用其外交力量削弱台灣。
 
Summary: 
Trump and Xi will meet at the APEC forum in South Korea. While the focus will be on bilateral trade, they may consider a reset in their relations, which could determine Taiwan's fate and Washington's stance on Taiwan. Any deal that trades Taiwan away will only further destabilize the region. However, Trump could use his leverage to counter China's hostility and restore peaceful norms in the Taiwan Strait, thereby reducing the risk of miscalculation and ensuring Taiwan's safety. 
How did we get here? 
  • Xi may request that Trump reduce support for Taiwan in exchange for better market access and more purchases of American goods. Beijing believed that Taiwan and the US are the primary causes of regional instability, even though it had engaged in more aggressive action, threatened Taiwan, and isolated Taiwan from global politics. 
  • Although cross-strait relations were relatively warm during Ma's administration, China expanded its military while Taiwan's stagnated, creating a vast gap between the two militaries. 
  • Tsai tried to soften tensions with China, but was unsuccessful because Tsai rejected the 1992 Consensus, which was a cornerstone for cross-strait relations, while offering an unsatisfactory framework to Beijing.
  • Cross-strait relations plummeted further when Pelosi visited Taiwan, as Beijing views the visit as a provocation. Subsequently, China ramped up the number and scale of its military exercises around Taiwan and pressured Taiwan using non-military coercions. 
  • Cross-strait relations continue to deteriorate under Lai's presidency. Beijing showed distaste toward Lai because the president has taken a harder-line approach to cross-strait relations compared to his predecessors. Beijing is unlikely to accommodate the Lai administration and will continue to undermine it using its diplomatic power. 
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