作者/Author(s): Samuel Charap and Jeremy Shapiro 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 10/07/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 安全、烏克蘭、再保證部隊


保證退款 
  • 在俄烏長期的衝突中，盟友國家一直在政治辯論，導致對烏克蘭的外援不斷延遲，可能的安全保證也變得不穩定。因此，烏克蘭的擔保國應建立一套連貫的架構、基於共識的觸發機制，以及確保各國會履行承諾的財務與法律架構。 
  • 為兌現對烏克蘭的承諾，各國應將部分制裁、財政及援助義務立法。 
  • 若烏克蘭指控俄羅斯違反停火協議，擔保國必須在48小時內召開會議評估烏方主張，在必要時啟動恢復制裁機制，這將有效提升對俄羅斯的嚇阻力，防止俄羅斯在毫無反制下逐步侵蝕協議內容。 
  • 為強化烏克蘭面對俄羅斯再度進攻時的防禦能力，美國與歐洲必須果斷加強國防企業間的協調。這種合作對生產烏克蘭急需的武器與彈藥至關重要。西方國家亦應在鄰近烏克蘭的國家預先部署彈藥，並確保軍事訓練中心隨時可供烏克蘭部隊訓練預備役人員。 
  • 美歐必須定期檢討恢復制裁的機制，持續監控烏克蘭局勢，並確保承諾的長期穩定與即時性。定期評估才能保障這項機制維持民主公信力，進而長期支持烏克蘭。 

Money-Back Guarantee 
  • In this ongoing conflict, political debates in partner countries have repeatedly delayed foreign assistance for Ukraine, which makes potential security guarantees unstable. Consequently, the guarantors of Ukraine should establish a coherent framework, consensus-driven triggers, and financial and legal structures that ensure compliance and commitments from each state. 
  • To demonstrate their commitment, they should codify some of their sanctioning, financial, and aid obligations into law. 
  • If Ukraine accuses Russia of breaking the truce, the guarantors must convene within 48 hours to evaluate Ukraine’s claim and deploy snapback mechanisms if necessary. By doing so, it will enhance deterrence against Russia and prevent Russia from salami-slicing its way across the agreement without any retaliation. 
  • To empower Ukraine in the face of a potential renewed Russian attack, the US and Europe must decisively enhance coordination among their defense firms. This collaboration is essential to produce the weapons and ammunition urgently needed for Ukraine’s defense. The West should also pre-position ammunition in countries neighboring Ukraine and ensure its military training centers are always available for Ukrainian forces to train their reserves. 
  • The US and Europe must regularly review their snapback system, continue to monitor the situation in Ukraine, and ensure the sustainability and readiness of their guarantees. Regular assessment would guarantee that this system maintains its democratic credibility and, consequently, its support for Ukraine. 
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