作者/Author(s): Alasdair Phillips-Robin 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 10/24/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、稀土、習近平 

 

摘要：
雖然中國最新的稀土出口許可措施並未明確針對任何特定國家，但還是激怒了川普，他指責習近平違反貿易休戰協議。但這些措施制度複雜、難以執行，給了美國與盟友組織有效反制的機會，最終恐反噬北京。
  • 中國幾乎壟斷了現代科技的關鍵原料「可用稀土」，這是中國能將供應鏈武器化的重要籌碼。
  • 北京最新的政策規定就算是轉售商也必須申請跨境銷售許可，並明確禁止向與外國軍方有關的買家交易，同時將嚴格審查高階半導體生產商。 
  • 對於中國這項新措施，有兩種主流解釋：
  1. 為貿易談判爭取更多籌碼。 
  2. 回應川普政府近期的貿易限制。 
  • 後者更有可能。華府拒絕全面取消關稅與出口管制措施，激怒了北京。同時，北京也深知美國供應鏈的弱點，遂升級貿易緊張局勢以獲取更多對美談判籌碼。 
  • 然而，這些新措施恐怕只是虛張聲勢。 
  1. 北京當局的執法態度寬鬆、靈活，甚至會視情況選擇性執行。專家推測，北京此舉更像是為了蒐集數據，而非真的要限制出口。 
  2. 新規範的範圍極廣，北京當局也很難準確監控稀土流向及最終用途。此外，全球買家肯定也會提出抗議。 
  3. 中國在全球金融體系中的影響力有限，所以也很難確實地懲罰違規者。 
  • 面對新措施，川普政府再度搬出熟悉的劇本：不斷提高關稅，試圖讓中國屈服。然而，這一策略早已失效，既未改變北京的行為，反而損害了美國經濟。 
  • 但這一次，川普政府手中仍握有幾張可動用的籌碼：  
  1. 這次率先升級出口規範的是中國，這種行為國際社會背道而馳，川普政府更容易透過全球聯盟進行反制。
  2. 自春季以來美國財政狀況有所改善，政府施政有了更大的彈性。 
  • 想要在這場博弈中取勝，華府必須展現其聯盟能夠對中國經濟造成短期衝擊的能力，同時還要承受北京的報復與衝擊。 
 
Summary: 
Although China's newest rare-earth licensing measures did not specifically target any parties, it angered Trump to the point of accusing Xi of violating the trade truce. Nevertheless, these measures may backfire against Beijing itself due to their complexity and difficulty in enforcement, allowing the US and its allies to mount an effective response against Beijing. 
  • China virtually controlled the key ingredients of modern technologies—usable rare earths, giving it the ability to weaponize these supplies. 
  • Beijing's newest restrictions require a license for cross-border global sales, even for resellers, specifically banning sales to buyers linked to foreign militaries and scrutinizing advanced semiconductor producers. 
  • There are two explanations for China's newest measures: 
  1. Gaining leverage over trade negotiations. 
  2. Responding to recent trade restrictions by the Trump administration. 
  • The latter explanation is more probable, as Washington's refusal to eliminate all tariffs and export control measures irked Beijing. At the same time, Beijing also understood the US supply chain weaknesses well and escalated the trade tension to gain greater leverage over the US. 
  • However, the newest measures could be more bark than bite.  
  1. Beijing's enforcement was lax, flexible, or selective. Experts postulated that China was using the measures to gather information rather than limit sales.  
  2. Given the expansive nature of the new measures, it is challenging for Beijing to monitor the flow of its supplies and their end uses. Furthermore, buyers worldwide will protest against China's tactics. 
  3. China also has limited influence in global finance, which complicates efforts to penalize those who violate the rules. 
  • In light of the new measures, the Trump administration repeated its playbook: escalating the tariffs to an unsustainable level and hoping China would bow down to the pressure. Yet, the playbook was already a flop, having failed to change Beijing's behavior completely while hurting the US economy in the process. 
  • This time, however, the Trump administration has some leverage that it could use: 
  1. Since it was China that made the big escalatory move this time and is going against the world, it is easier for the Trump administration to retaliate with a global coalition. 
  2. The financial condition in the US has improved since the spring, providing the administration with greater flexibility. 
  • To prevail against Beijing, Washington must demonstrate the ability of its coalition to inflict more short-term pain on the Chinese economy and shoulder the pain from Beijing's measures. 
 
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