作者/Author(s): Andriy Zagorodnyuk 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 09/23/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 防禦、安全、烏克蘭 


更強大、更出色
  • 雖然俄軍仍佔有零星領土並不斷發動遠程攻擊，但烏克蘭癱瘓俄軍作戰能力的進展超乎想像。如今烏克蘭將許多前線變成持續運作的殺戮區，俄軍幾乎不可能在未被偵測且不被擊殺的情況下推進。若烏克蘭能擴大這些前線殺戮區，未來俄軍的攻勢只會越發徒勞無功。
  • 烏克蘭需要更多無人機與高科技武器來擴大殺傷區，但這需要北約改變既定設想與優先事項。
  • 烏克蘭的盟友與其提供不相容於作戰環境的舊式系統或精密攻擊武器，不如轉而協助烏國積極推動大規模創新與新技術整合。這些盟友具備關鍵財務資源、科學能力及工業基礎，足以支持烏克蘭軍隊研發與製造先進且價格合理的系統。值得慶幸的是，歐盟已經開始著手這部分。 
  • 歐洲支援烏克蘭的另一種方式是在烏克蘭西部建立禁航區，也可視情況擴展至中部。此舉雖然是為了保護烏克蘭關鍵基礎設施與經濟的防禦措施，但也能讓烏克蘭空軍專注投入東部戰線。 
  • 北約各國仍須持續供應傳統武器、彈藥與情報給烏克蘭，這些是一切有價值的安全保證的基礎。 
  • 北約要讓安全承諾真正發揮作用，不能僅憑空頭承諾，而是必須在烏克蘭部署實質性安保部隊。但此舉會讓北約部隊直接面對俄羅斯軍隊，可能耗資巨大且政治風險極高。 

Bigger and Better 
  • Ukraine is closer to incapacitating Russia than most people expected, despite Russian forces still holding small chunks of territory and attacking from afar. However, Ukraine has transformed large stretches of the frontline into persistent kill zones, making it nearly impossible for Russian forces to advance without being detected and then killed. If Ukraine could expand these kill zones, future Russian offensive would become futile. 
  • Ukraine will need more drones and high-tech weapons to expand its kill zones, which require NATO to change its presumptions and priorities.  
  • Instead of providing legacy systems or sophisticated assault weapons, which are incompatible with Ukraine's operational environment, Ukraine's allies should divert their attention to assisting Ukraine in innovating and integrating new technologies on a large scale. These allies already possess the necessary financial resources, scientific capabilities, and industrial base to support the Ukrainian military in developing and manufacturing advanced, affordable systems. Luckily, the EU has already been going in this direction. 
  • Another way for Europe to support Ukraine is to establish a no-fly zone over Western Ukraine, which may be expanded to cover central Ukraine. Although this initiative is primarily a defensive measure to protect Ukraine's critical infrastructure and economy, it enables the Ukrainian air force to focus on the eastern front. 
  • NATO states will also have to maintain the supply of traditional weapons, ammunition, and intelligence to Ukraine. These are the basis for any worthwhile security guarantees. 
  • To make a security guarantee work, NATO must deploy reassurance forces to Ukraine and not rely solely on any paper commitments. However, it could be expensive and politically risky because they will have to face the Russian military directly. 
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