作者/Author(s): Graham Allison 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 10/06/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、供應鏈、美中
 

摘要：
近期美中談判顯示，川普願意以增加對中國的經濟與技術依賴為代價，換取財務與象徵性的勝利。習近平的積極配合也贏得了川普的好感，為美中建立更緊密經濟夥伴關係打下了一定基礎。 
  • 目前美中尚未就關稅與貿易條款達成共識，但貝森特與何立峰將於十一月關稅停火期結束前再次碰面。 
  • 與現正流行嘲諷川普的「TACO」（川普總是臨陣退縮）意思相反，部分專家認為當川普在手牌不足且無法虛張聲勢時選擇棄牌，實屬明智之舉。
  • 習近平曾明確表示，他的目標是讓其他國家在供應鏈關鍵環節上依賴中國，他也多次動用中國的經濟實力懲罰那些不聽話的國家。然而，美國歷屆政府與企業卻忽視了這些警訊，對威脅毫無防備。 
  • 如今川普想要打破中國主導地位、消除美國在關鍵物資上對中國的依賴，恐怕為時已晚。川普與他的團隊終於意識到在這場「供應鏈撲克賽」中，真正握有好牌的人是中國，美國已經無法輕易擺脫對中國的依賴。這一觀點，也獲得了美國多位企業領袖的認同。
  • 所幸美國仍握有一些籌碼。中國依舊相當仰賴美國的先進科技產品，以及美元為核心的國際金融體系。川普與習近平兩人都是現實主義者，也都了解全球兩大經濟體強行脫鉤的潛在風險。 
Summary: 
The negotiations signaled that Trump is willing to increase economic and technological dependence on China in return for a financial and symbolic win. Xi's eagerness to accommodate also gained Trump's favor and laid the groundwork for a more fruitful economic partnership. 
 
  • Although the US and China have yet to agree on tariffs and trade terms, Bessent and He will meet again before the tariff truce ends in November. 
  • Contrary to the TACO acronym, some experts suggest Trump is doing the right thing by folding when he does not have the cards and can't bluff.  
  • Xi had asserted that he intended to make other nations reliant on China for the most essential components in their supply chains and had repeatedly wielded China's economic power against those who went against his wishes. However, earlier US administrations and companies ignored the signs, making them unprepared against this danger. 
  • It may be too late for Trump to break China's dominance and eliminate US vulnerabilities by relying on China for essential materials. Consequently, Trump and his team now realize who has the high cards at the supply chain poker game and accept the fact that there is no easy way out of dependency on China, a view that top US business leaders share.
  • Fortunately, the US still has some cards to play. China remains dependent on the US for advanced technological goods and the dollar as the cornerstone of the international financial system. Both leaders are realists and, therefore, will understand the dangers of a forced disengagement between the two largest economies. 
 
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