作者/Author(s): Graham Allison 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 10/06/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、供應鏈、美中 

摘要：

顯然，川普與貝森特都很喜歡打撲克牌，經常用撲克牌來比喻一些事情。然而，自從他們對中國發動關稅戰以來，幾乎每局都輸。如今，這兩人即將在APEC峰會期間會晤習近平，他們必須重新審視手中的牌，並謹慎出牌，才能保持對中國的優勢。 
中美供應鏈的撲克對決 

  • 4月2日，川普宣布對57個國家祭出「解放日關稅」。唯中國以七種稀土材料出口管制作為反制，從此開啟關稅戰與反制措施的循環，導致雙方陷入形同禁運的狀態。 
  • 美中關稅升級引發美國企業恐慌，促成貝森特與何立峰在日內瓦舉行會談。談判結果是雙方同意放寬部分關稅，並就美企取得稀土出口許可的原則達成模糊共識。然而，當中國故意拖延核發許可時，美國企業因此陷入恐慌，並向白宮施壓，迫使美方再次對中國實施新的進出口限制。 
  • 美國企業未見緩解跡象，川普遂妥協致電習近平重啟貿易談判。之後，貝森特與何立峰在倫敦再度會晤，雙方同意放寬最具破壞性的出口限制——美國放寬對晶片的管制，中國則放鬆稀土出口限制。部分國安專家批評此舉，認為這等同於美國在AI競賽中向中國投降。 
  • 美中談判代表隨後於斯德哥爾摩再次會晤，決定將關稅停火期延長至11月，並為即將舉行的川習峰會預作準備，希望藉此推動更具合作性的經濟關係。 
  • 近日，川習通話後宣布達成TikTok協議。美國股東將持有80%股份，而字節跳動則保留控制權與演算法授權，這也意味著該協議可能成為未來美中在智慧財產權與專有技術談判中的「範本」。 
Summary: 
Apparently, Trump and Bessent enjoy playing poker, often using poker analogies. However, they have lost every round since engaging in a tariff war with China. As Trump and Bessent are meeting Xi at the sidelines of the APEC summit soon, they must reevaluate their cards and play them wisely to ensure they have the leverage over China. 

 

The US-China Supply Chain Poker Match 

  • On April 2, Trump announced the "Liberation Day" tariffs on 57 countries. Only China retaliated by imposing export controls on seven rare earth materials, which started a cycle of tariffs and counter-retaliations until the tariffs effectively led to a virtual embargo on both sides. 
  • The tariff escalation caused panic in the US, leading to the meeting between Bessent and He in Geneva. The negotiation resulted in the relaxation of tariffs and a vague guideline on rare-earth permits for US firms. When China deliberately delayed approval of export licenses, US firms panicked and complained to the White House, forcing the US to impose new import and export restrictions on China. 
  • With no signs of alleviation among US businesses, Trump caved in and called Xi to renegotiate trade terms. Bessent and He met again in London after the call and agreed to relax the most harmful export restrictions, specifically those on chips on the US side and rare earths on the Chinese side. Some national security experts criticized the move, arguing that it appears the US has surrendered the AI race to China. 
  • US and Chinese negotiators met again in Stockholm, agreeing to extend the tariff truce until November as they prepared for a Trump-Xi summit aimed at fostering more cooperative economic ties. 
  • Recently, Trump confirmed a deal on TikTok after a call with Xi. Even though US shareholders will hold an 80% stake in the company, ByteDance will retain control over and license the algorithm for TikTok. It also signals that this deal will be a model for future agreements surrounding Chinese intellectual property and proprietary technology. 
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