作者/Author(s): Francesca Ghiretti, Nicholas Taylor, and Conlan Ellis 

網站來源/Source: RAND Corporation 

日期/Date: 09/10/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、中國、拒止性嚇阻 


全民動員 
  • 一個國家在報復對方前，必須先承受經濟攻擊帶來的衝擊。因此，讓民眾了解經濟攻擊的可能影響，並清楚政府的應對作為，是最重要的一步，能提升國家的韌性、嚇阻能力，並削弱敵方經濟攻擊的效力。 
歐洲（或任何國家）能實現經濟嚇阻嗎？ 
  • 成功的經濟嚇阻策略必須多管齊下，且因為全球政治經濟體系具有高度的相互依存與不確定性，任何單打獨鬥的做法都不明智。
  • 雖然歐洲屢次受到警告，但在經濟脆弱性與經濟嚇阻機制方面依然很弱。若要成功，歐盟與英國應該： 
  1. ​​​​​​​建立敘事與策略架構，讓各國能更有效地運用經濟影響力。 
  2. 發展正確的經濟嚇阻工具，加強區域內合作機制。 
  3. 推動進出口來源多元化，以提升整體經濟韌性。
  • ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​歐盟與英國應探索並運用各自的優勢，以預備、遏止及應對經濟脅迫。
結論
  • 歸根究柢，經濟嚇阻不僅僅是孤立自身，更重要的是建立「自給自足」的能力，這要求一個國家對自身經濟結構有充分了解，能靈活運用戰略相互依存的關係，並具備集體行動能力與可信的嚇阻基礎與工具。 
  • 中國展現了在經濟相互依存中保持靈活的必要性，以減輕脆弱性並發揮自身的優勢。中國彰顯了同時應對內部脆弱性與外部挑戰的重要性。最重要的是，中國體現了經濟嚇阻中可信度的必要性，此模式值得其他國家效法。 
 
Preparing the Population 
  • A country must absorb the implications of an economic attack before retaliation. Therefore, preparing the population for an economic attack and informing citizens about the government's efforts are essential. It would enhance a country's resilience, improve deterrence capacities, and reduce the potency of an adversary's economic attack. 
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Can Europe (or any country) do economic deterrence? 
  • Successful economic deterrence requires a multi-pronged approach. Acting alone is unwise due to the intangible factors of the global political economy. 
  • Europe remains weak despite several warnings about its economic vulnerabilities and the need for economic deterrence. To succeed, Europe and the UK should: 
  1. ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Develop a narrative and implement strategies to empower countries to utilize their economic influence effectively. 
  2. Develop correct instruments for economic deterrence and enhance cooperation within the bloc. 
  3. Diversify input and export sources, thereby enhancing economic resilience. 
  • The EU and UK should explore their respective strengths and leverage them effectively to prepare for, deter, and respond to economic coercions. 
Conclusions 
  • In the end, economic deterrence is not only about isolating oneself but also about achieving self-sufficiency. It also requires an understanding of one's economy, the ability to leverage strategic interdependence, the necessity for collective action, and the accumulation of credible bases and instruments for economic deterrence.  
  • China demonstrated the need for flexibility in economic interdependence to mitigate vulnerabilities and leverage its advantages in interdependence. China has shown the significance of tackling both internal vulnerabilities and external challenges. Most importantly, China displayed the necessity of fundamental credibility in economic deterrence, a model that other countries could emulate.
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