中國的經濟拒止性嚇阻手冊 (Part 2)

作者/Author(s): Francesca Ghiretti, Nicholas Taylor, and Conlan Ellis 

網站來源/Source: RAND Corporation 

日期/Date: 09/10/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、中國、拒止性嚇阻 
 

糾纏性嚇阻：培養可作為槓桿運用的第三方關係（國家與企業） 

• 「糾纏性嚇阻」強調相互依存所帶來的代價，目標方與攻擊方都會有所損失。相互依存關係越緊密，嚇阻效果越強。 
• 作為全球供應鏈的重要樞紐，中國可運用糾纏性嚇阻來對抗他國，但這種依存關係同樣也會限制中國的行動空間。 
• 中國在對其他國家採取報復措施時，謹慎地選擇了對自身損害成本較小的經濟領域，同時避開與第三國高度連結的關鍵產業。
• 然而，中國在運用相互依賴作為經濟戰略手段時，風險承擔意識似乎比較低。更準確地說，中國正嘗試透過互賴關係實施經濟嚇阻，積極強調其他國家對中國的依賴性，同時減少自身對他國的依賴，特別是對先進經濟體的依賴。 

• 懲罰性嚇阻旨在警告各國的任何攻擊行為都將招致積極反擊，讓攻擊者付出高昂代價，從源頭阻止攻擊者出擊。 
• 此措施的成功取決於發起國的可信度與明確溝通能力，例如中國報復美國「解放日」關稅措施。 
• 中國近年來逐步完善報復機制，能更迅速、更強烈地採取反制行動，如今已成為中國最具效力的手段之一，也讓各國政府與企業心生畏懼。

• 這三項嚇阻措施需要強大的可信度。當其他國家行為者跨越中國認定的紅線，或對中國施展經濟外交時，中國便運用這三項經濟手段展現出自身在嚇阻方面的意願與能力。 

• Deterrence by entanglement emphasizes the ties and the reciprocal costs of a potential attack, imposing costs on both the target and the attacker. Furthermore, the stronger the interdependence, the more effective the deterrence will be.
• As a crucial hub for global supply chains, China could employ deterrence by entanglement against others, but the entanglement itself also constrains it. 
• China had wisely chosen economic sectors that would impose less cost on itself when retaliating against another state and avoided vital economic sectors involving third countries. 
• However, China appears to be less risk-averse in its use of dependence in its economic statecraft. More accurately, China is attempting to employ economic deterrence through dependence, where it emphasizes the dependence of other countries on China, while reducing its own dependence on others, especially on advanced economies. 

• Deterrence by punishment seeks to deter an attack by warning that any such attack will be followed by active retaliation, which could be costly to the attacker. 
• This measure entails credibility and communication to be successful, as shown in China's retaliation against the US "Liberation Day" tariffs. 
• China had gradually improved its retaliatory measures, enabling it to deploy countermeasures more quickly and with greater intensity. Consequently, it became China's most effective countermeasure, which many state actors fear. 

• The three deterrence measures require strong credibility. China has demonstrated its credibility by leveraging its economic levers when other state actors cross its perceived red lines or employ economic statecraft against it.