作者/Author(s): Philip H. Gordon and Ryan Hass 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 09/22/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 兩岸關係、防禦、台灣 

摘要： 

近年來，國際關係領域越來越關注中國可能入侵台灣的問題，特別是習近平從未掩飾「統一」的野心，甚至積極準備中。然而，也有少數專家指出，中國可能不必訴諸全面戰爭，而是透過「非軍事手段」迫使台灣接受其「屬於中國」的現實。川普政府為改善美中關係而冷落台灣的態度，更加強了這一說法。雖然各界對台灣有所憂慮是很正常的，但這種擔憂也存在誇大成分——因為台灣具備超乎預期的自我防衛能力。

棘手的局勢 

  • 任何人都不該低估北京對台的軍事威脅。中國不僅積極推動軍事現代化、擴充軍備，還加大環島軍演規模，常常蓄意跨越台海中線，以測試台灣防禦體系。然而，隨著大量解放軍高層將領因習近平積極「打貪反腐」、「清洗不忠」下台，中國軍事指揮體系已經面臨嚴重挑戰。 
  • 與此同時，台灣積極將防禦戰略轉型為更具不對稱性的作戰模式，將自身打造成一隻「豪豬」，迫使潛在敵人三思而後行。台灣也將平民納入防禦規劃，並重組指揮體系，賦予前線指揮官更多靈活性。
  • 台灣已承諾會提升國防開支，積極採購與部署現代化防禦系統，並且與美國合作發展無人系統與電子作戰裝備方面的頂尖能力。 
  • 美國及盟友已制定嚇阻中國的具體措施。美國不僅透過現有武器庫存提供台灣一定的軍事援助，更核准台灣申請外國軍事融資。同時，美國也與印太盟友協調，強化兵力投射、預先部署彈藥與其他不對稱能力。美國盟友亦正投資發展中等軍事能力，以提升對中國的嚇阻。 
Summary: 
International relations have paid increasing attention to the possibility of a Chinese invasion of China in recent years, especially since Xi Jinping has never hidden his ambition of conquering the island and is actively preparing for it. Yet, few experts argued that China would resort to means short of war to coerce the Taiwanese to accept the fact that they are part of China. The Trump administration's apparent cold shoulder to Taiwan in favor of better relations with Beijing further reinforced the claim. Although concerns about Taiwan's future are reasonable, they are also exaggerated because Taiwan is more capable of protecting itself than expected.  

Prickly Situation 
  • Everyone should not underestimate Beijing's military threat to Taiwan. China had modernized and increased its war inventories, expanded its military exercises around the island, and regularly tested Taiwan's defense by deliberately crossing the middle line, separating the Taiwan Strait. Yet, its military command had severe internal challenges after Xi purged many of China's top military officials for corruption or disloyalty. 
  • However, Taiwan had also reformed its defense doctrine into a more asymmetric approach, turning the island into a porcupine and forcing any foes to think twice before invading the island. Taiwan also included civilians in its defense planning and reorganized its command and control to allow more flexibility for field commanders. 
  • Taiwan has pledged to increase its defense spending and is actively procuring and deploying modern defense systems. Furthermore, Taiwan has partnered with the US to produce advanced capabilities, especially in uncrewed systems and electronic warfare equipment. However, Taiwan must follow through on its pledges and reforms more urgently to consolidate its defense preparedness. 
  • The US and its allies have devised steps to deter China. The US had provided military aid to Taiwan from its existing weapons inventory and approved Taiwan for foreign military financing. The US also coordinated with its Indo-Pacific military allies to support power projection and pre-positioned ammunition and other asymmetric capabilities. US allies are also investing in moderate capabilities to ramp up deterrence against China. 

回上層