作者/Author(s): Philip H. Gordon and Ryan Hass 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 09/22/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 兩岸關係、防禦、台灣 


新的平衡點 
  • 台灣對中國政治滲透的防範程度，遠比外界想像得更充分。雖然中國傾力透過各種手段影響台灣輿論，但目前並沒有收到顯著成效的跡象。 
  • 中國之所以未能撼動台灣，是因為台灣人民對捍衛主權與民主價值的決心，遠超過北京的預期。近期民調顯示，多數台灣人支持維持兩岸現狀並認同自身的「台灣人」身份。更甚者，中國的施壓越大，台灣民眾的反感就越強烈。 
  • 雖然台灣社會存在一定程度的政治極化，但三大政黨在關鍵問題上有基本共識：維護台灣民主、改善對美關係、拒絕與中國統一，以及不支持立即宣布獨立。這些共識優先考量的是台灣的安全與區域穩定，而非製造內部分裂。 
一手好牌
  • 台灣面臨的風險極高。雖然尚未發展成存亡危機，但台灣絕不能掉以輕心，必須盡速修補脆弱環節。 
  1. ​​​​​​​台灣領導人必須投入充足資源強化防禦與韌性，藉此遏止中國軍方的野心，並向美國展現堅決自衛的決心。 
  2. 台灣應善用經濟優勢與先進晶片生產的主導地位，確保美國及其盟友持續依賴台灣，有效維持他們長期關注台灣的安全議題。 
  • ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​儘管台灣面臨川普政府日益增加的不確定性、中國的持續威脅以及台灣內部的分歧，但台灣依然有能力確保自身生存，並塑造未來前景。 
 
A New Equilibrium 
  • Taiwan is more prepared for a Chinese political infiltration than many realized. Although China has devoted itself to influencing public opinion in Taiwan through various means, there are no indications that it is having an effect. 
  • China failed to sway the Taiwanese because the Taiwanese are more committed to protecting Taiwan's sovereignty and democratic norms than it predicted. Recent public opinion polls have shown that a majority of Taiwanese support maintaining the current cross-strait status quo and embracing their Taiwanese identity. Furthermore, the more China coerces the Taiwanese, the more the Taiwanese abhor China.
  • Although there is some degree of political polarization in Taiwan, the three Taiwanese political parties share a consensus on maintaining Taiwanese democracy, improving ties with the US, rejecting unification with China, and not supporting immediate independence. These prioritized Taiwan's security and regional stability over divisive matters. 
A Winning Hand 
  • The stakes for Taiwan are high. Although it has not evolved into an existential crisis, Taiwan should not be complacent and must urgently mend its vulnerabilities. 
  1. ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Taiwanese leaders must allocate sufficient resources to bolster their defense and resilience, thereby discouraging Chinese military planners and signaling their resolve for self-defense to the US. 
  2. Taiwan should leverage its economic advantages and its dominant position in advanced chip production to ensure that the US and its allies continue to rely on it, thereby maintaining an abiding interest in Taiwan's long-term security. 
  • ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Although Taiwan still faces growing uncertainty from the Trump administration, continued threats from China, and internal divisions, it could still ensure its survival and shape its future. 
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