作者/Author(s): Richard Fontaine and Andea Kendall-Taylor 

網站來源/Source: The New York Times 

日期/Date: 09/05/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 國際秩序、軍事、美國 

 

摘要：
上週，當俄羅斯、伊朗與北韓領導人與習近平一同出席北京93閱兵時，便已露出中國試圖推翻並對抗美國主導國際秩序的野心。 
  • 許多專家對所謂的「動盪軸心」評價不一，有人淡化威脅，也有人誇大作用，尤其是在美國與以色列對伊朗發動攻擊後，該聯盟除了空洞的譴責外幾乎毫無動作。然而伊朗總統現身閱兵，證明該軸心依然活躍。 
  • 雖然這些國家各自存在巨大差異，但共同點是都對美國懷有敵意。聯盟成員偶有互助，但更遠大的目標在於重塑現有國際秩序，以爭取符合自身實力與形象的國際地位及行動自由。 
  • 這些國家的軍事合作對美國而言最具意義且影響深遠。 
  1. 中國、伊朗與北韓協助俄羅斯持續俄烏衝突並抵禦國際壓力。 
  2. 在美國的經濟施壓下，這些國家加強經濟與科技合作，以降低對美國及其盟友的依賴。 
  3. 這些國家也共享軍事技術與知識，以削弱美國的軍事優勢。此種合作讓俄羅斯譨更快重建常規部隊，進而導致北約的防禦規劃得更複雜。 
  • 這些成員國們看到了挑戰美國主導的國際秩序的契機，例如川普對長期盟友的打壓，以及美國退出全球領導地位的舉措。  
  • 川普政府雖承認「軸心」帶來的挑戰，但方向卻不對。 
  1. 川普政府原以為恢復與俄羅斯的關係，能吸引俄羅斯脫離軸心國陣營。然而此舉注定失敗，因為克里姆林宮始終將美國視為實現俄羅斯全球野心的首要障礙。 
  2. 美國也曾對中國採取類似做法，例如放寬半導體出口管制，但結果很可能如同對俄羅斯一樣徒勞無功。更糟的是，此舉反而可能強化俄中挑戰美國的能力。 
  • 應對軸心國的最佳策略是維持現有美國主導的國際秩序，並充分發揮美國同盟體系的潛力。然而，川普政府會這麼做嗎？ 
 
Summary: 
When leaders of Russia, Iran, and North Korea accompanied Xi Jinping during a military parade in Beijing last week, it signalled China's ambition to overturn and oppose the US-led international order.
  • Many experts underplayed or exaggerated the "axis of upheaval," particularly after the coalition's inaction, except for toothless condemnation, in the face of US and Israeli attacks on Iran. However, Iran's president showed up for the military parade, showing the Axis was well alive. 
  • Despite vast differences, these countries shared an antipathy towards the US. The coalition occasionally assists one another, but the members have a greater ambition to change the current international order to claim their place in it and win more freedom of action that fits their perceived national power and image. 
  • Military cooperation within the Axis was the most significant and consequential for the US. 
  1. China, Iran, and North Korea had helped Russia to continue its war in Ukraine and withstand international pressure. 
  2. Amidst US economic pressure, these countries have enhanced economic and technological cooperation to reduce their exposure to the US and its allies. 
  3. These countries also shared military technology and knowledge to undermine the US's military advantage. This cooperation enables Russia to rearm its conventional forces more quickly, thereby complicating NATO's defense planning. 
  • The members saw an opportunity to challenge the US-led international order, as exemplified by Trump's bullying of its longtime partners and the US's withdrawal from global leadership.  
  • The Trump administration acknowledges the challenges posed by the Axis, but it is barking up the wrong tree. 
  1. The administration assumed that restoring relations with Russia would attract Russia away from the Axis. However, it is doomed to fail because the Kremlin will always treat the US as the primary obstacle to Russia's global ambitions. 
  2. The administration attempted a similar approach with China by relaxing semiconductor export controls, but it will likely yield similar results as in the Russian situation. Worse, it could strengthen Russia and China's ability to challenge the US. 
  • The best response to the Axis is to maintain the current US-led international order and harness the capacity of US alliances. Yet, will the Trump administration do so? 
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