作者/Author(s): Agathe Demarais 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 09/04/ 2025 

 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、普丁 


摘要：
普丁上個月在阿拉斯加與川普會晤後，避免美國對俄進行新一輪經濟制裁，這對因戰爭消耗與制裁壓力而陷入困境的俄羅斯經濟而言，就像一條救命繩索。然而，搖搖欲墜的俄羅斯經濟，依舊是西方未來在推動俄烏談判時的關鍵壓力點。 
  • 雖然官方數據可信度存疑，但近期統計顯示俄羅斯經濟整體萎縮，特別是非軍事領域。 
  • 作為家庭消費可靠指標的俄羅斯汽車產業，因新車銷量大幅下滑而陷入收縮。 
  • 俄羅斯銀行業初露崩潰跡象： 
  1. 儘管違約率不高，但家庭與企業難以償還貸款，頻繁與銀行重新協商還款條件。 
  2. 房地產部門因高房價且市場難以維持，恐面臨泡沫破裂危機。家庭貸款償還期不斷延長，是財務壓力加劇的重要徵兆。 
  3. 眾多非銀行企業無力償債，恐需俄羅斯政府出手紓困。 
  4. 多重財務危機導致俄羅斯外貿銀行（VTB）淨利息收入下滑，這與克里姆林宮的說法相反，顯示西方制裁的確有效。 
  • 作為俄羅斯主要收入來源的石油產業亦陷入困境。 
  1. 自俄烏危機爆發以來，印度成為俄羅斯石油的主要買家，如今川普政府也對印度加徵 25% 關稅。雖然印度煉油廠仍在進口俄羅斯石油，但克里姆林宮擔憂新德里最終會屈服於美國壓力。
  2. 中國作為另一大買家，則是為了避免重蹈印度覆轍，已拒絕增加對俄羅斯石油的依賴。
  3. 同時，烏克蘭多次攻擊俄羅斯煉油廠與輸油管道，試圖干擾其運作。 
  4. 俄羅斯烏拉爾油價下跌及盧布兌美元升值，更導致俄國石油產業陷入困境。 
  • 俄烏危機終局與未來安全條款難以預測，但西方必須認知其經濟施壓已見成效。西方應進一步加強制裁，以製造足夠羞辱性的經濟危機，迫使普丁重返談判桌。
 
 Summary: 
Putin may have prevented a new round of US economic sanctions after meeting Trump in Alaska last month, which could be a lifeline for Russia's war-drained, sanctions-constrained economy. The crumbling Russian economy remains a crucial pressure point as the West attempts to push for a negotiation regarding Ukraine's future. 
  • Despite questionable official data, recent statistics indicate that the Russian economy contracted overall, particularly in the non-military sectors. 
  • The Russian automotive sector, a reliable indicator of household purchases, contracted as new car sales dropped significantly. 
  • The Russian banking sector showed signs of collapsing: 
  1. Despite a low default rate, Russian households and businesses are struggling to repay their loans and often renegotiate the terms with banks.  
  2. The real estate sector may face a housing bubble burst due to unsustainable and high new house prices. The extended average loan repayment of Russian households is a significant sign of rising financial strain. 
  3. Many nonbank firms are unable to service their debt and may require bailouts from the Russian government. 
  4. The combined dire financial situation caused a net interest income drop at VTB, hinting that Western sanctions are effective, contrary to the Kremlin's claims. 
  • The oil sector, Russia's primary source of revenue, is also being boxed into a corner. 
  1. India, a primary customer of Russian oil since the start of the Ukrainian Crisis, faces an additional 25% tariff from the Trump administration. Although Indian refiners continued to import Russian oil, the Kremlin fears that New Delhi will bow to the Trump administration, thereby stopping their oil trade. 
  2. China, another major purchaser of Russian oil, had declined to increase its reliance on Russian oil to prevent suffering a similar fate as India. 
  3. Ukraine is also attacking Russian oil refineries and pipelines, disrupting their production. 
  4. Russia's Ural benchmark oil price drop and the appreciation of the Russian ruble against the dollar further complicate the predicaments of the Russian oil sector. 
  • It is hard to predict how the Ukrainian Crisis will end or what the terms of Ukraine's future security will be. Nevertheless, the West must recognize that its economic pressure is having an effect. It should further intensify its sanctions effort to create the humiliating economic crisis required to bring Putin to the negotiation table.
 
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