作者/Author(s): Kimberly Donovan 

網站來源/Source: Atlantic Council 

日期/Date: 08/26/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、制裁、川普、普丁


摘要：
川普展示了他能強迫普丁坐上談判桌，討論如何結束俄烏戰爭，也可以協調西方各國領袖的能力。然而，在川普與普丁及歐洲領袖高調會面後，他還是未能敲定和平協議，對普丁的挫敗感也越來越深。在俄羅斯經濟陷入困境之際，川普可以直接制裁俄羅斯石油，取得重要的談判籌碼，為和平協議敲下致命的一擊。
  • 俄烏戰爭正在快速消耗俄羅斯的國家福利基金，恐在 2026 年前就用完。市場不確定性導致黃金價格飆升，俄羅斯能以高價出售黃金來支付戰爭成本，支撐經濟。然而俄羅斯的金融安全網有限，黃金儲備正在減少。如果俄羅斯無法透過能源貿易創造收益，就必須進一步動用黃金庫存來維繫經濟。 
  • 在這個狀況下，美國應對俄羅斯石油實施制裁。雖然七國集團對俄羅斯石油實施價格上限並制裁多家俄羅斯銀行，但莫斯科仍能在限價內銷售或透過非法途徑獲取收益。 
  • 雖然印度與中國已經收到川普的警告與關稅戰威脅，但他們仍持續採購俄羅斯石油。此舉不僅強化俄中印三國關係與貿易互賴，也削弱了西方在俄烏和平談判中的經濟籌碼。 
  • 若要提升談判地位並結束戰爭，美國應仿照對伊朗的制裁模式，切斷俄羅斯石油收入來源，加快消耗俄羅斯的國家福利基金，將普丁再次逼上談判桌。 
  • 對俄羅斯石油實施次級制裁可以迫使印度、中國及其他買家遵循美國的制裁措施。然而，西方國家必須事先建立機制，以緩解供應鏈衝擊，並在俄羅斯遵守和平談判條件時放寬制裁限制。 
  • 作為起手式，美國與歐盟可以先制裁俄羅斯的「影子艦隊」，並加強制裁俄羅斯石油公司。這些措施都會對俄羅斯石油收入產生重大影響，讓烏克蘭與西方國家在進行和平談判時處於更有利的地位。 
 
Summary: 
Trump showed the world that he can compel Putin to negotiate to end the Ukrainian Crisis and that he can be the coordinator among Western leaders. Despite high-profile meetings with Putin and European leaders, Trump has yet to secure a peace deal and is becoming more frustrated with Putin. As the Russian economy is struggling, Trump could obtain leverage by sanctioning Russian oil directly and hammer the nail in the coffin for a peace deal. 
  • The war in Ukraine is draining the Russian National Welfare Fund, which could run empty by 2026. Market uncertainty led to a spike in gold prices, enabling Russia to sell its gold at a high value to cover the costs of its war and fund its economy. However, Russia's financial safety net, comprising gold stockpiles, is finite and in decline. If Russia cannot generate revenues from energy trade, it would need to tap into its gold reserves further to sustain its economy.  
  • Under these circumstances, the US should impose sanctions on Russian oil. Although the G7 imposed a price cap on Russian oil and sanctioned several Russian banks, Moscow continues to generate revenue by selling oil within the price cap or through illicit means. 
  • India and China continued to purchase Russian oil despite tariffs or warnings from Trump. Moreover, it reinforces Russia-China-India relations and trade dependence while reducing the West's economic leverage in peace negotiations for the Ukrainian Crisis. 
  • To improve its negotiation position and end the war, the US should sanction Russia's oil, as it did to Iran, to disrupt its revenues, which may force Russia to deplete its National Welfare Fund and eventually compel Putin to the negotiation table. 
  • Imposing secondary sanctions on Russian oil could pressure India, China, and other buyers to follow the US sanctions. However, the West must have mechanisms in place to alleviate supply chain shocks and allow for sanctions relief if Russia complies with the terms of the peace negotiations. 
  • To begin, the US and EU could sanction the Russian shadow fleet and upgrade sanctions measures on Russian oil companies. These measures will have a significant impact on Russian oil revenue, giving Ukraine and the West a stronger position to negotiate a lasting peace. 
 
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