作者/Author(s): Yun Sun 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 08/15/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、地緣政治、中國、川普 


摘要：
中國積極爭取舉辦「習川會」，緩和中美的脆弱關係，並舒緩短期經濟困境。北京政府憑藉與川普政府打交道的經驗，以及近期關稅戰的豪賭，他們找到了一個在不與美國發生衝突的情況下實現目標的機會。 
  • 川普於2024 年再次當選時，北京便已預期美中關係將再次陷入敵對，而這可能加劇中國國內經濟停滯，以及貿易互賴的脆弱性。為此，中國早已做好準備，並在不利情況下，以出口管制反制美國的關稅升級。中國的賭注成功了，美國不得不勉強撤回部分「解放日」關稅措施，迫切尋求新的貿易協議。如今，中國自信已在與美貿易談判中占據上風。 
  • 自四月以來的關稅事件發展，讓中國專家認為美國的風險承受力已不如中國。美國急於與中國談判，暴露出其可被利用的弱點，特別是對中國稀土與磁鐵的依賴，以及中國在提升經濟韌性、降低對美依賴的努力。因此，中國可以更靈活地運用經濟國策工具對付美國。 
  • 北京政府相信，美國無法在不嚴重損害自身經濟的狀況下再次升級對中關稅，這反而賦予中國更大的談判籌碼。 
  • 中國對於在短期內與川普政府達成協議持樂觀態度，並願意處理部分貿易失衡問題。此外，目前川普政府對意識形態競爭沒有太大興趣，對台灣的支持亦有所退縮，符合中國決策者對川普「交易導向」的預期。中國也深知，直接與川普談判成功機率更高，這也是他們積極推動「習川會」的原因。 
  • 然而，中國對中美關係的長期前景仍不抱樂觀。但一份短期協議至少可讓美國分心於其他事務。只要議題集中於貿易，中國就有信心能延宕談判進程，或加入撤回條款，藉此爭取最大靈活性來應對川普政府。 
 
Summary: 
China is keen to host a Xi-Trump summit to reduce the fragile US-China relations and alleviate its short-term economic predicaments. Thanks to its experiences dealing with the Trump administration and its gamble in the recent tariff war, Beijing may have found an opportunity to achieve its objectives without conflict with the US. 
  • When Trump was reelected in 2024, Beijing anticipated a renewed hostility with the US, which could exacerbate its stagnating economy and vulnerabilities stemming from trade interdependence. Subsequently, China prepared itself and, against all odds, retaliated against the US tariff escalations with export controls. China's gambit paid off when the US reluctantly reversed some of its Liberation Day tariff measures and eagerly sought a new trade deal. Now, China is confident that it has the upper hand in trade negotiations with the US. 
  • From the events of April onwards, Chinese experts believed that the US risk tolerance is weaker than that of China. The US's urgency in negotiating with China exposed the vulnerabilities that China could potentially exploit, particularly its dependence on Chinese rare earths and magnets, as well as China's success in enhancing economic resilience and reducing its reliance on the US. Consequently, China had more freedom in calibrating its economic statecraft against the US. 
  • The Beijing government believes that the US will not re-escalate tariffs against China without significantly damaging its (the US's) economy, thereby giving it a larger bargaining power. 
  • China is optimistic about securing a short-term deal with the Trump administration and is willing to address some trade imbalance issues. Furthermore, the current Trump administration has shown less interest in ideological competition and has scaled back its support for Taiwan, aligning with Chinese policymakers' anticipation of Trump's transactionalism. China also understood that negotiating directly with Trump would yield better chances of success, which is why China is keen on a summit between Xi and Trump. 
  • Nevertheless, China remains pessimistic in its long-term relations with the US, but a short-term deal could keep the US distracted from China. As long as the issue surrounds trade, China is confident that it can delay the negotiation process or include rescission clauses, thereby gaining flexibility in dealing with the Trump administration. 
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