作者/Author(s): Michael Rubin 

網站來源/Source: American Enterprise Institute 

日期/Date: 08/11/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 和平協議、俄羅斯、川普、普丁、阿拉斯基 


摘要：
川普即將在阿拉斯加會晤普京，希望能結束俄烏戰爭。這可能是川普的戰略錯誤，因此舉將合法化俄羅斯目前和未來征服的領土，且對終結俄烏衝突毫無意義。不過，鑒於俄羅斯內部也存在脆弱性，此舉或許也能為日後恢復烏克蘭領土鋪路。 
  • 普丁曾表示，他願意停止戰爭，以換取國際社會正式承認俄羅斯對烏克蘭東部地區和克里米亞的主權。然而澤倫斯基仍堅決拒絕向俄羅斯割讓任何土地。 
  • 蘇聯解體後簽署的阿瑪阿塔宣言（Declaration of Alma-Ata）及1994 年《布達佩斯備忘錄》，不僅是澤倫斯基主張的具體法律依據，也是俄羅斯違反國際法的證據，更凸顯美的安全保證並不可靠。 
  • 無論阿拉斯加會談結果為何，都不會削弱普丁的地緣政治野心。 
  • 川普想獲得諾貝爾和平獎的願望，可能會導致更多的衝突。雖然他有機會促成幾項和平協議，但和平恐怕無法長久，因為他可能會強行推動一些有缺陷的和平協議。 
  • 普丁也可能將「雙普會」協議當作籌碼，向烏克蘭及其他鄰國施壓，要求割讓領土。然而，鑒於西方的安全保障在普丁的侵略下已形同虛設，烏克蘭在普丁下台後，或許會撕毀阿拉斯加協議並收復失土。 
 
Summary: 
Trump is meeting Putin in Alaska soon to terminate the war in Ukraine. It may be a strategic mistake because it will legitimize Russia's current and future territorial conquests and is meaningless for ending the Ukrainian Crisis. Nevertheless, it may pave the way for the eventual restoration of Ukrainian territory due to Russia's internal weaknesses. 
  • Putin had signalled that he is willing to stop the war in exchange for formal recognition of the Russian sovereignty of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. However, Zelensky remained steadfast in refusing to concede any land to Russia. 
  • The Alma-Ata Declaration, signed after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the 1994 Budapest Memorandum were concrete legal proofs of Zelensky's claim, evidence of Russia's violation of international law, and a demonstration of the unreliability of US security guarantees. 
  • Regardless of the outcome of the Alaska meeting, it will not diminish Putin's geopolitical ambitions. 
  • Trump's quest for a Nobel Peace Prize may lead to more conflict than peace. Although he may broker several peace deals, the peace may not last, as he may force through some bad agreements. 
  • Putin may also use the Trump-Putin pact as a basis to pressure Ukraine and other neighbours of Russia to cede territories. However, since Western security guarantees became meaningless in the face of Putin's aggression, Ukraine may tear up the Alaska agreement and reconquer its lost territories after Putin passes away. 
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