作者/Author(s): Michael C. Horowitz, Lauren A. Kahn, and Joshua A. Schwartz 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 07/04/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 科技、軍事、無人機、戰場 


摘要：
烏克蘭「蜘蛛網行動」（Operation Spider Web）與以色列「雄獅崛起行動」（Operation Rising Lion）展現了人工智慧輔助無人機作戰的能力。然而，美國在「午夜之鎚行動」（Operation Midnight Hammer）使用昂貴且傳統的武器系統攻擊伊朗核設施，顯示此類武器在戰場上的重要性。隨著美軍緩慢推動現代化，他們得加速並重新投入大量低成本無人系統，積極整合傳統作戰能力，否則將失去嚇阻與打贏戰爭的能力。 
  • 「蜘蛛網行動」與「雄獅崛起行動」證明，精準且大規模的攻擊可對先進對手造成致命打擊，同時也曝露了昂貴但缺乏機動性的系統的脆弱性。 
  • 儘管兩個行動的目標不同，但它們對現代戰爭都有幾點啟示： 
  1. 嚴重依賴昂貴傳統平台的軍隊，在面對消耗戰時恐陷入困境。 
  2. 即使是能負擔高價武器平台的富裕國家，若不適應新形勢，也會在戰爭中損失大量此類系統，甚至面臨財政或政治不穩。
  • 兩項行動突顯了資源不足的軍隊亦能對抗強大對手。透過將廉價無人武器系統偷運入對手領土，攻擊其關鍵目標，可對對手施加不對稱成本。同時也能致使對手面臨更換昂貴平台的困難，進而削弱對手優勢，甚至在持久戰中扭轉局勢。 
  • 然而，俄羅斯與伊朗也正以類似戰術進行反擊，進一步壓迫烏克蘭與以色列的防空系統，並促使以色列動用戰鬥機打擊伊朗核設施。 
  • 低成本無人機在戰區的重要性日益提升，但傳統平台仍不可或缺，且可整合低成本系統一併應用。 
  1. 以色列利用無人系統削弱伊朗防空，使其戰機與美國轟炸機能深入伊朗境內。 
  2. 傳統匿蹤武器製造成本很高且費時，但效果與破壞力極強。 
  • 「蜘蛛網行動」、「雄獅崛起行動」與「午夜之鎚行動」凸顯了在維持傳統平台時，發展精準且可大規模運用的系統的必要性。這些行動也強調，各國必須適應現代戰爭的變化，才能在戰爭中發揮嚇阻作用並取得勝利。 
 
Summary: 
Ukraine's Operation Spider Web and Israel's Operation Rising Lion demonstrated the capabilities of AI-supported drone warfare. However, the US conducted Operation Midnight Hammer, attacking Iranian nuclear facilities, with expensive legacy weapons systems, signifying their importance in combat. As the US military modernizes, albeit slowly, the US must quickly reinvest in a large number of inexpensive, uncrewed systems and integrate them with traditional capabilities, or it will lose its ability to deter and win wars. 
  • Operations Spider Web and Rising Lion demonstrated how precise mass attacks could be lethal against advanced adversaries and expose the vulnerabilities of expensive immobile systems. 
  • Although the aims of the operations differ, they had several implications for modern warfare: 
  1. Militaries relying heavily on expensive traditional platforms may struggle in a war of attrition. 
  2. Even if rich countries could afford expensive platforms, they would lose much of these systems if they did not adapt, making them financially or politically destabilizing. 
  • Both operations highlighted the ability of underresourced militaries to fight against stronger adversaries. Utilizing inexpensive, uncrewed weapons systems by smuggling them into opponents' territories and attacking critical targets could inflict asymmetric costs on their opponents, as it is harder to replace expensive platforms. Subsequently, it will erode their opponents' advantages and turn the tide in a protracted war.  
  • However, Russia and Iran are retaliating using similar tactics, which further pressure Ukraine and Israel's air defenses. It also prompted Israel to use fighter jets to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. 
  • Inexpensive drones are becoming increasingly significant in combat zones, but traditional platforms remain essential and can be integrated with more affordable systems. 
  1. Israel used uncrewed systems to degrade Iran's air defenses, allowing its fighter jets and US bombers to penetrate deep into Iranian territories. 
  2. Strealthy legacy weapons are expensive and time-consuming to manufacture, but they are highly effective and destructive. 
  • Operations Spider Web, Rising Lion, and Midnight Hammer highlighted the need to develop more precise mass systems while maintaining conventional platforms simultaneously. They also emphasized the need to adapt to changes in modern warfare to deter and emerge victorious in wars. 
 
回上層