作者/Author(s): Michael Cecire 

網站來源/Source: RAND Corporation 

日期/Date: 08/05/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、地緣政治、中國、黑海 


摘要：
中國積極透過商業與基礎設施夥伴關係，悄悄擴展自身在黑海地區的影響力。中國在黑海地區的行動看起來並不協調，但這些行動表明了中國正試圖建立一個有影響力的生態系統。 
  • 雖然過程中受到歐盟的阻撓，但中國仍成功與部分國家加深關係。透過簽署協議，北京得以與喬治亞、保加利亞、土耳其和亞塞拜然等國在數位與科技基礎建設領域展開廣泛合作。 
  • 北京-莫斯科間不對等的雙邊關係是中國在黑海周邊地區布局的關鍵因素。此外，俄烏長期衝突分走了西方的注意力，讓中國得以在黑海區域內進行一些象徵性的外交操作。 
  • 中國在黑海地區的經濟參與帶有政治目的，旨在重塑符合北京利益的全球監管架構，並促成當地更加依賴中國資本與技術。 
  • 隨著中國影響力日益鞏固，黑海與南高加索地區的國家可能逐漸願意與北京建立「戰略夥伴關係」或「全面戰略夥伴關係」，有效提升中國的全球地位，並助長對中友善的故事。 
  • 中國採用生態系型態的策略擴展在黑海的影響力：基礎建設奠定菁英合作的基礎，進而促成正式的夥伴關係，最終形成長期的政治與制度性整合。 
  • 中國不需主導黑海地區，只需塑造對自己有利的數位、經濟與外交環境即可。此外，俄羅斯在烏克蘭的侵略行動將持續牽制西方，同時提高中國對俄羅斯的影響力與在歐洲的存在感。
 
Summary: 
China is quietly expanding its influence in the Blak Sea region through commerce and infrastructural partnerships. Although China's initiatives in the area appear uncoordinated, they indicate China's attempt to build an influence ecosystem. 
  • China deepened its ties with some countries despite obstacles from the EU. These agreements enabled Beijing to engage in extensive cooperation with countries such as Georgia, Bulgaria, Turkey, and Azerbaijan in the development of digital and technology infrastructure. 
  • Beijing-Moscow asymmetric relations are the key factor in China's regional posture near the Black Sea. Moreover, the continued war in Ukraine keeps Western forces distracted and allows China to make symbolic diplomatic contributions. 
  • China's economic engagement in the Black Sea region serves political ends, reshapes the global regulatory framework to favor Beijing, and fosters long-term economic reliance on Chinese capital or technology. 
  • As China's influence consolidates, countries in the Black Sea and South Caucasus are increasingly willing to upgrade their relations with Beijing to "strategic" or "comprehensive strategic" partnerships. Consequently, it reinforces China's global standing and fosters support for pro-China narratives. 
  • China employed an ecosystem approach in expanding its influence in the Black Sea: infrastructure lays the basis for elite cooperation, which eventually facilitates formal partnerships that foster long-lasting political and institutional alignment. 
  • China only needs to shape the digital, economic, and diplomatic environment to be favorable for it without dominating the region. Furthermore, Russia's belligerence in Ukraine will keep the West in check while increasing China's leverage over Russia and presence in Europe. 
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