作者/Author(s): Da Wei 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 07/29/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 外交、中國、烏克蘭 


和平的前景
  • 中國是斡旋俄烏和平的最佳人選。如果中國能促成俄烏和平，將有助於改善中歐間的關係，為更多極化的世界秩序做出貢獻，並提升自身作為負責任大國的國際形象。 
  • 事實上，中國在調停過程中的角色是次要且有限的。中國願意參與多邊和平談判，但影響力小於直接參與者俄羅斯和烏克蘭，以及間接參與者歐洲和美國。此外，只有當俄羅斯和烏克蘭同意停火，並針對戰後安全保障達成明確協議，中國作為第三方調停者才算成功。 
  • 中國與俄羅斯的密切關係也限制了中國調解的能力，因為中方不願對俄羅斯施加實質壓力，或批評與其關係密切的國家。 
  • 中國與美歐間的緊張關係亦進一步壓縮了其調解空間。烏克蘭與西方普遍認為中國將推動對俄羅斯有利的解決方案。
  • 鑒於上述限制，中國至多只參與戰後重建工作，不會主動召集各方展開談判。 

歐洲的挑戰 
  • 烏克蘭是中國修復中歐關係的一根刺。在俄烏戰爭爆發初期，北京選擇保持距離，當時並未意識到俄烏衝突將如何影響中歐關係。 
  • 自 2019 年起，歐盟將中國視為體制上的競爭對手，但也是合作夥伴。然而，由於中國與西方關係愈趨緊張，夥伴關係似乎變得遙不可擊。中國期望歐洲能重新認識中國在俄烏戰爭中的角色，而非要求中方改變政策立場。
  • 戰爭結果將影響中國未來的戰略。不過，中國仍希望維持一個穩定、開放且可預測的外交與經濟環境，以利其發展國際利益。
 
Prospects for Peace 
  • China is the best candidate to mediate peace between Ukraine and Russia. If China could restore peace in Ukraine, it would enhance its relations with Europe, contribute to a more multipolar world order, and bolster its global image as a responsible great power. 
  • In reality, China's role will be secondary and limited. China is willing to participate in a multilateral peace negotiation, but it has less influence than the direct participants, Russia and Ukraine, and the indirect participants, Europe and the U.S. Moreover, China will only succeed as a third-party mediator if Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire, along with explicit post-war security guarantees. 
  • China's close relations with Russia also limit its ability to mediate, as it is unwilling to force Russia to make significant concessions or criticize countries that align closely with it. 
  • China's tension with the U.S. and Europe further constrains its potential as a mediator. Ukraine and the West believe China will push for a settlement advantageous to Russia. 
  • Given the limitations, China will at most participate in post-war reconstruction efforts, but will not take the initiative to bring all parties to the negotiation table. 
The European Challenge 
  • Ukraine is a thorn in China's effort to restore ties with Europe. Beijing distanced itself when the war began, unaware of the conflict's implications for its relations with Europe. 
  • Since 2019, the EU has viewed China as both a systemic rival and a competitor, as well as a partner. However, partnership seems distant due to China's bitter relations with the West. China hoped that Europe could correct its misperceptions about its role in this war, not asking China to change its approach. 
  • The outcomes of the war will shape China's strategy. Nevertheless, China hoped for a stable, open, and predictable environment for its diplomacy and economic interests. 
 
回上層