作者/Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik 

網站來源/Source: The Interpreter 

日期/Date: 07/22/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、國際政治、中國、烏克蘭 


摘要：
中國曾表示，一旦俄烏戰爭達成停火或和平協議，便派遣維和部隊進入烏克蘭。 
  • 雖然進展緩慢且謹慎，但中國仍堅定支持其烏克蘭維和行動。 
  • 為避免激怒俄羅斯，中國低調地與烏克蘭合作，也派遣官員造訪衝突地區。 
  • 中國公開承認不希望看到俄羅斯戰敗。但這並不代表中國希望俄羅斯取得勝利。它希望的結果是俄烏衝突僵持不下，俄羅斯既無法全面提升實力，也不至於崩潰，同時讓美國繼續關注俄羅斯。
  • 中國也藉由參與維和行動，鞏固全球領導地位。雖然中國看似正挑戰由美國主導的「以規則為基礎的國際秩序」，但其目的是維護聯合國的完整性以及自身作為全球南方領導者的地位。 
  • 中國是領導烏克蘭維和行動的最佳人選。 
  1. 中國與俄羅斯關係密切，較西方列強更受莫斯科信賴。 
  2. 烏克蘭亦希望維繫與中國的關係，並將其視為結束戰爭的最後手段。
  • 無論結果如何，聯合國安理會接受或否決中國維和部隊的決議都對北京有利。 
  1. 如果安理會同意，中國會積極鞏固其作為負責任利益相關者的地位，並減少西方對其支持俄羅斯的批評。然而，中國的目標只是從這項任務中獲得戰略優勢，因此有可能只象徵性地派遣少量部隊參與維和行動。 
  2. 如果安理會同意，中國會積極鞏固其作為負責任利益相關者的地位，並減少西方對其支持俄羅斯的批評。然而，中國的目標只是從這項任務中獲得戰略優勢，因此有可能只象徵性地派遣少量部隊參與維和行動。 
  • 此外，參與此次維和行動亦可作為中國日後參與烏克蘭重建工作的跳板，進而在東歐地區建立更強的經濟與政治影響力。 
Summary: 
China had signalled its intentions to deploy peacekeepers in Ukraine once a ceasefire or peace agreement is concluded.  
  • Although the progress is discreet and slow, China remains firm in its intention to support peacekeeping operations in Ukraine. 
  • China also worked quietly with Ukraine to avoid angering Russia, and its officials had visited conflict areas. 
  • China publicly acknowledges that it does not wish to see Russia lose the war. However, it does not signify that China hopes Russia to be victorious. Its preferred outcome is a frozen conflict between Russia and Ukraine, stalling Russia from strengthening or collapsing while keeping the U.S. focused on Russia. 
  • China also seeks to participate in peacekeeping operations to consolidate its global leadership. Although China appears to be dismantling the U.S.-led rules-based order, it aims to preserve the integrity of the UN and its position as a leader of the Global South. 
  • China is the best possible candidate to lead a peacekeeping operation in Ukraine. 
  1. China shares a close bond with Russia, favoring it over other Western powers. 
  2. Ukraine also wishes to preserve its ties with China and views it as a last resort to end the war. 
  • Regardless of the outcome, the UNSC decision to accept or veto Chinese peacekeeping operations will favor Beijing. 
  1. If the UNSC accepts, China will reinforce its position as a responsible stakeholder and mitigate Western criticism for its support of Russia. However, China aims only to gain a strategic advantage from the mission, meaning it will maintain a symbolic presence by deploying a small number of forces. 
  2. If the UNSC rejects, China could accuse the West of blocking peacemaking efforts and reinforce the narrative that the West is disinterested in peace. 
  • Involvement in Ukraine's peacekeeping operations also serves as a launching pad for rebuilding Ukraine and securing a stronger economic and political presence in Eastern Europe. 
 
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