作者/Author(s): Michael Kimmage and Maria Lipman
網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs
日期/Date: 07/16/2025
關鍵字/Keywords: 外交、國際政治、普丁
摘要：
普丁自25年前掌權以來，在國內政治、經濟與社會層面取得傲人的政績。他透過政治鎮壓、極權化的克里姆林宮體制，主打恢復俄羅斯昔日榮光的承諾，有效鞏固政權並贏得民眾支持。自2007年以來，普丁採取了更加冒險與軍事化的外交政策，擴張俄羅斯在東歐、南高加索與中東地區的軍事存在。然而近期的外交失利與俄烏僵局，使普丁陷入兩難，並危及他引以為傲的國內穩定。
- 2014 年起普丁推動更為強勢的外交政策，同時巧妙地降低了外國報復的風險。雖然俄羅斯與西方的關係因此有所動搖，但普丁贏得了國內民眾強烈的支持，並帶領俄羅斯挺過制裁風暴，更加鞏固國內穩定局勢。
- 普丁藉由激發民族愛國情緒、驅逐異議份子、並將任何反戰言論定為刑事犯罪，以合理化對烏克蘭的戰爭。留在國內且未公開反對戰爭的人民，則有機會參與戰時經濟或戰事本身，享有相對且不受政府干預的繁榮。
- 然而，這樣「沉默的穩定」比普丁預期的更脆弱。若普丁能迅速取勝，將有助於鞏固俄羅斯的愛國情緒與政權支持；但目前的僵局卻削弱了俄羅斯的國際地位、外交影響力、軍事實力與經濟。
- 烏克蘭贏得這場戰爭的機會微乎其微，卻成功拖住軍力更為優勢的俄軍，並在某些戰事中出其不意地擊退俄軍攻勢，同時獲得國際社會的強力支持。
- 面對日益加劇的壓力，普丁不願退讓，並展現出不惜一切代價取勝的決心。然而，國內外接連出現的危機，恐日漸削弱普丁的地位，甚至顛覆他長年經營的穩定局勢。
- 雖然俄羅斯人目前尚未反抗普丁政權，但他們可能會質疑戰爭的必要性，甚至不再支持戰爭，更公開地表達異議。因此，普丁可能採取更極端的極權手段，進一步加強戰爭動員與政治鎮壓。無論他的選擇為何，都會將烏克蘭進一步推向歐洲的懷抱，而這與他的目標背道而馳。
Putin has achieved a remarkable level of domestic political, economic, and social stability since assuming power 25 years ago. Political repression, a totalitarian Kremlin, and promises of returning Russia to its former glory concreted Putin's regime and garnered civilians' support. Consequently, Putin has engaged in a more adventurous and militaristic foreign policy since 2007, expanding Russia's military presence in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and the Middle East. However, recent foreign policy failures and stalemate in the Russo-Ukrainian War put Putin in a dilemma and jeopardize his prized domestic stability.
- Putin has advanced a more assertive Russian foreign policy since 2014, while skillfully mitigating the risks of foreign retaliation. Although it has shaken Russia's relations with the West, Putin garnered strong domestic support and weathered Russia through the economic sanctions, thereby generating domestic stability.
- Putin justified his war on Ukraine by fanning the instilled patriotism, driving dissidents away from Russia, and criminalizing any anti-war narratives. Those who remained and did not publicly oppose the war had the opportunity to participate in the war economy or the war itself, enjoying relative prosperity and undisturbed by the government.
- The silent stability is more fragile than Putin has anticipated. If Putin were to win a short war against Ukraine, it would likely consolidate Russian patriotism and support for his regime. Yet, the current stalemate has degraded Russia's global position, diplomatic influence, military power, and economy.
- Ukraine has little chance of winning the war. Still, it has stalled the more superior Russian military, sprung some surprises against the Russians, and garnered strong international support in its war efforts.
- Despite the increasing pressure, Putin will not stand down and is determined to win, whatever it takes. Recent crises, both inside and outside Russia, may exacerbate its weakening position and upend Putin's long-fostered stability.
- Although Russians had not revolted against the regime, they may start to question the necessity of war, refuse to support it anymore, and voice their dissent more openly. Consequently, Putin may resort to more totalitarian measures, increasing the war effort and political repression. Regardless of his options, it will push Ukraine further into Europe's arms, which contradicts his objectives.