作者/Author(s): Emily Ferris 

網站來源/Source: The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security 

日期/Date: 07/16/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、俄羅斯、財政、戰爭 


摘要：
經濟學家與商業菁英在聖彼得堡國際經濟論壇（SPIEF）上激烈辯論，雙方分歧的觀點恰恰凸顯出俄羅斯當前的經濟困境。俄羅斯如今面臨西方制裁體系不斷擴大，戰時經濟亦開始衰退。更糟的是，即便俄羅斯戰後得以吞併部分烏克蘭領土，也會因資金短缺無法重建經濟，進一步加劇國內經濟壓力。
  • 連同普丁親信在內的多位企業領袖擔心高利率和盧布估值過高，會導致企業經營更加困難。 
  • 俄羅斯經濟發展部長在觀察到 GDP 成長大幅下滑後，直言俄羅斯經濟已經進入衰退期。戰時支出的成長假象掩蓋了投資不足與企業倒閉等結構性問題。 
  • 低失業率也是另一個即將破滅的泡沫，恐為俄羅斯經濟帶來新一輪衝擊。 
  1. 目前俄羅斯失業率處於歷史低點，主因是大量勞動人口被徵召上戰場，或早已逃離俄羅斯境內。 
  2. 大規模動員也導致鐵路運輸業人力短缺，俄羅斯與周邊國家的貿易能力隨之下降。 
  • 俄羅斯中央銀行主管曾多次警告有關西方制裁的風險，也積極協助克里姆林宮預做準備。俄羅斯經濟看似頗具韌性，全歸功於多樣化的外匯儲備狀況，並積極推廣非 SWIFT 金融系統。 
  • 大部分俄羅斯官員皆同意國內經濟面臨嚴峻挑戰，普丁卻仍著迷於GDP數據不斷成長的曲線。此外，普丁並不了解俄羅斯真正的經濟趨勢及持續維持戰時經濟的風險，持續將資金分配給國防軍事體系。 
  • 此次論壇未提及的一個問題是俄羅斯併吞領土的未來。 
  1. 隨著俄羅斯吞併更多烏克蘭土地，俄羅斯必須加大投資並振興當地經濟，才能鞏固統治，但這又會進一步加重國內的財政負擔。 
  2. 克里姆林宮以犧牲大城市為代價，編列了一筆克里米亞及其他被佔領區的重建預算，並推出財政獎勵誘因，以振興在地企業。然而，這些政策並不受歡迎或成效不彰。 
  3. 此外，俄羅斯可能還需投資於邊境城鎮的防禦，並協助安置流離失所的居民，但其現有能力恐難支撐這些任務。 
 
Summary: 
Divisive opinions among economists and business elites at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) highlighted Russian economic woes. Not only does Russia face an expanded Western sanction regime, but its wartime economy has started to falter. Worse, even if Russia could absorb Ukrainian territories after the war, it would struggle to fund them and exacerbate its economy. 
  • Several business leaders, including Putin's allies, are concerned that many businesses are faltering due to high interest rates and an overvalued ruble. 
  • The Russian Minister for Economic Development even claims Russia is entering recession after observing a significant drop in GDP growth. Illusions of growth caused by wartime spending overshadowed structural problems such as a lack of investment and failing businesses. 
  • Low unemployment is another illusion that is on the verge of breaking, causing another problem for the Russian economy. 
  1. Russia's unemployment rate was at a historical low because most manpower was conscripted into the war effort or had escaped from Russia. 
  2. The mass mobilization led to labor shortages in the railway business, which limited Russia's ability to trade with neighboring countries. 
  • The Head of the Russian Central Bank had warned about additional sanctions and helped the Kremlin to prepare for them. The Russian economy appears resilient due to its efforts in diversifying Russia's foreign reserve profile and promoting the use of non-SWIFT financial systems. 
  • Most Russian officials agree on the Country's economic woes, but Russia's GDP growth enthralled Putin. Furthermore, Putin still does not fully understand Russia's actual economic trajectory and the risks of maintaining a wartime economy, with the continued allocation of funds to the military and defense. 
  • One issue that was not addressed in the SPIEF is the future of the annexed regions. 
  1. As Russia absorbs more Ukrainian land, it must invest and reinvigorate the local economy to consolidate its control over the region, thereby increasing its financial burden. 
  2. The Kremlin has allocated a reconstruction budget for Crimea and other occupied territories at the expense of large Russian cities and introduced financial incentives to boost local businesses in these regions. However, these policies were unpopular or ineffective. 
  3. Furthermore, Russia may need to invest in defenses for border towns and support displaced residents, but it lacks the sufficient capacity to accomplish these tasks. 
 
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