作者/Author(s): Michael Kimmage 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 05/19/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、俄羅斯、俄烏戰爭 


摘要：
普丁自2000年上台以來，雖然從未在戰場或外交上取得壓倒性勝利，卻始終善於避免軍事與政治上的終極失敗。即便在2022年俄烏戰爭中，普丁或許能製造出「勝利」的假象並扭曲事實，但當戰損與經濟衰退的現實襲來，他必須向人民承認失敗。 
  • 俄羅斯在外交、經濟實力與政治意志上皆顯露疲態，削弱其長期作戰的能力。若俄羅斯是防守方，普丁或許能獲得更多國內支持，但情況並非如此。因此，若無可信的戰略選項，普丁最後可能被迫放棄烏克蘭。 
  • 俄軍面臨兩大嚴峻軍事困境。 
  1. 首先是無法進攻。俄羅斯軍隊近期看似有所進展，但烏克蘭幅員廣大，俄軍優勢有限，稍有不慎便會前功盡棄。對普丁而言，最理想的狀況是俄烏陷入僵局，俄羅斯取得幾塊不具重大戰略價值的地區。 
  2. 其二是烏克蘭本身。普丁原想推翻烏克蘭政府並分化其社會，結果卻事與願違。俄軍攻擊平民與基礎設施的舉動，反而激起烏克蘭人民更堅定地支持政府，並肩作戰。 
  • 俄羅斯原可以在西方對援烏猶豫不決時取得外交優勢，甚至是在消耗戰中累積籌碼。然而，俄羅斯不理會美國的停火請求，也不理會其決策者提出的任何妥協，反而浪費了一個大好機會。 
  • 普京對烏克蘭的執著也重創了俄羅斯的經濟。由於全球貿易衝擊，俄螺絲難以維持高額軍費支出，國內通膨壓力沉重。儘管尚未陷入飢荒，但人民已經開始質疑這場戰爭。 
  • 普丁政權與俄羅斯民眾對戰爭的支持，根植於俄羅斯的政治體制。比起優勢，這種威權統治如今卻被視為弱點，若普丁最後未能征服烏克蘭，這場戰爭將被歷史定義為一場愚蠢的賭注。 
 
Summary: 
Putin is adept in avoiding military and political defeat since taking power in 2000 despite not being the victor. Putin may orchestrate victorious scenes and distort the facts in the 2022 Russo-Ukraine War. However, Putin could not hide the reality for long and must admit defeat to his people after military casualties and economic deterioration became evident. 
  • Russia is struggling in its diplomacy, economic power, and political will, which undermines its protracted wars. If the operations is a defensive nature, Putin may garner more support, but this is not the case. Without credible options, Putin may have to give up on Ukraine eventually. 
  • Russia faces two serious military dilemmas. 
  1. The first is the inability to advance. Russian forces are gaining momentum, but Ukraine’s vast territory means the momentum is meaningless or could be lost easily. The best outcome for Putin is a stalemate and gaining areas without significant material benefit. 
  2. The second is Ukraine itself. Putin aimed to upend the Ukrainian government and split its civilians. The decision backfired and instead, Ukrainians stood with the government and high morale in fighting after Russian forces attacked civilians and basic infrastructure. 
  • Russia had the opportunity to score diplomatic advantage in a war of attrition after the West showed reluctance in supporting Ukraine. However, Russia squandered the chances after ignoring pleads for ceasefire from the U.S. and ignored any compromises proposed from its policymakers. 
  • Putin’s Ukraine obsession also endangered the Russian economy. Russia was unable to sustain its high military spending and inflation due to shocks in global trade. Although Russians are not starving, they will start to question Putin’s choice of war that went badly. 
  • Putin’s rule and support of the war was a result of the Russian political system. However, the authoritarian rule is seen as a vulnerability more than a strength, making his conquest of Ukraine foolish if he loses. 
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