作者/Author(s): Nicholas Hawkins 

網站來源/Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies 

日期/Date: 05/14/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 外交、美中溝通 


摘要：
在美中代表針對關稅戰議題，於日內瓦進行談判後，雙方的溝通管道再度成為焦點。這些涵蓋元首層級、經貿、軍事等領域的溝通管道，對於降低緊張、預防衝突與引領雙邊外交關係至關重要。
  •  在歐巴馬政府後期，美中之間有超過90個溝通管道，但在川普第一任期間幾近停擺。拜登政府上任後恢復部分對話，但在裴洛西訪台與2023年中國間諜氣球事件後再度減少。 
  • 元首層級溝通決定了中美關係的發展方向，並直接影響較低層級的溝通渠道。 
  1. 雖然川普與習近平通過幾次電話，但川普更希望與習近平親自會面，而習近平則因為會面的不確定性與風險，傾向避免見面。 
  2. 關稅戰和對峙僵局導致美中直接會談的機會更少，大家都想避免 「先眨眼」。 
  3. 在拜登政府時期，美中高層秘密會談是促成元首會晤與穩定雙邊關係的關鍵。但近期美中雙方經常激烈地公開批評對方，因此沒人能確定未來美中是否還會重啟類似機制。 
  • 經貿對話對於處理美中貿易戰及更廣泛的外交關係至關重要。 
  1. 日內瓦會談促成美中雙方在未來90天內將關稅調降115%，並暫停或取消自4月2日以來實施的非關稅反制手段 
  2. 雖然談判結果相對樂觀，但促成會談的艱困歷程顯示，美中貿易溝通脆弱易斷。雙方對談判的預期與偏好差異甚大，後續協商恐會更難。 
  • 軍事溝通機制有助於降低誤判、誤解與不必要的衝突風險。 
  1. 軍事對話常會隨著雙邊關係發展而有所變化。 
  2. 目前，美中軍事溝通十分有限。雖然基層層級仍有對話，但高層尚未有明確接觸，主因雙方內部都面臨軍事與政治議題。 
  3. 美中兩國目前並無實質性的危機管理機制，多數現行機制僅止於紙上談兵，缺乏實際落實。
  • 川普2.0尚未提出對中的全面戰略，且雙方領導人在會談形式上仍存分歧，美中溝通是否能改善仍不明朗。不過，雙方可先從幕後接觸開始，以提升未來各領域對話的可能性。 
Summary: 
After the U.S. and China representatives talked in Geneva to alleviate the tariff war, the status of U.S.-China communication channels became a focal point again. These channels, ranging from leader-to-leader, economic and trade, and military-to-military, are imperative to diffuse tensions, prevent conflicts, and guide diplomatic relations. 
  • Towards the end of Obama's administration, the U.S. had over 90 communication channels and was inactive during Trump's first tenure. Some channels were restored during Biden's administration, only to be reduced after Pelosi visits Taiwan and the 2023 spy balloon incident. 
  • Leader-to-leader communications determine the path for U.S.-China relations and directly affect lower-level communication channels. 
  1. Although Trump and Xi spoke several times on the phone, Trump preferred to meet Xi in person, while Xi wanted to avoid it due to the uncertainty and risks of the meeting.
  2. The tariff war and the consequent standoff diminished any chances of direct meetings because they want to avoid "blinking first." 
  3. During Biden's administration, backchannel meetings between top officials were central to expediting leader-to-leader meetings and stabilizing U.S.-China relations. Whether similar mechanisms will happen is inconclusive because they criticized each other heavily. 
  • Economic and trade channels are crucial to the U.S.-China trade war and broader diplomacy. 
  1. The most recent talks in Geneva between the U.S. and China resulted in 90-day 115% tariff reductions in both countries and the freeze or cancellation of other non-tariff measures implemented since April 2. 
  2. Despite the optimism, the difficulty in facilitating the Geneva talks shows the fragility of the U.S.-China trade communications. Furthermore, differing expectations and preferences may halt further discussions. 
  • Constant military-to-military communications can decrease the risk of miscalculation, misunderstanding, and needless clashes. 
  1. ​​​​​​​Military-to-military communications often follow the development of bilateral relations.  
  2. Currently, military communications between the U.S. and China are limited. Lower-level talks are ongoing, but there are no indications of senior-level talks yet, mainly due to domestic issues surrounding the military. 
  3. The U.S. and China do not have meaningful crisis management channels. Most mechanisms are paper talks without proper implementation. 
  • It is uncertain whether U.S.-China communication during the second Trump administration will improve because the administration has not proposed a grand strategy toward China, and leaders from both sides disagree on the meeting protocols. However, the U.S. and China could start with backchannel communications to bolster the chances of dialogue in other areas. 
 
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