作者/Author(s): Eyck Freymann and Hugo Bromley 

網站來源/Source: Hoover Digest Spring 2025 

日期/Date: 04/14/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 防禦、經濟、中國 
 

摘要： 
中國可能在2027年前入侵台灣，或透過封鎖戰術迫使台灣屈服。若北京決定武力併吞台灣，美國必須果斷提出應對方案，但經濟衝擊極為龐大，而美國目前還沒準備好承擔這些後果。 
  • 半導體是美國的「阿基里斯腱」。全球大多數先進晶片由台積電（TSMC）生產，如果台積電落入中國的控制，北京有望重回技術領導龍頭，並主導全球先進晶片供應鏈。 
  • 此外，若美國無法對中國入侵或封鎖台灣的行動做出有效回應，北京將更容易對美國在印太地區的盟友進行經濟脅迫，進一步動搖美國保障盟友安全的可信度。 
  • 中國在全球經濟體系佔有核心地位，制裁中國不僅可能引發全球貿易中斷，還會對美國造成嚴重傷害，進而動搖美國主導建立的國際經濟秩序。 
  • 儘管如此，美國仍須在台海危機中採取積極作為，以維護全球經濟穩定： 
  1. 美聯儲必須與其他主要國家的中央銀行協調，提供流動市場與資金，以減少民眾恐慌，防止全球金融崩潰。 
  2. 攜手理念相近國家，共同出資成立「經濟安全合作委員會」，以維持企業對全球貿易體系的信心。 
  3. 美國應與盟國合作，識別中國製造的關鍵產品，並積極尋找替代來源
  4. 美國應避免對中國祭出突然且全面性的關稅，而是積極應對中國製造的非關鍵性消費產品增加關稅，以減少對中國的依賴，防止通貨膨脹失控。 
  • 美國對中國祭出懲罰性關稅，必然會引來報復。但建立穩健的經濟安全架構，才是抵禦貿易與金融衝擊的最佳防線。
Summary: 
China may invade Taiwan by 2027 or subjugate Taiwan using blockade tactics. The U.S. must respond decisively if China plans to use force to annex Taiwan, but the economic implications are tremendous. Furthermore, the U.S. is unprepared to shoulder the repercussions right now.  
  • Semiconductors are the Achilles Heel of the U.S. Most of the world's advanced chips are produced by TSMC in Taiwan. If TSMC falls under China's control, Beijing will resume technological leadership and regulate the supply of advanced chips. 
  • Moreover, if the U.S. could not respond to the invasion or quarantine of Taiwan, China may economically coerce the U.S. Indo-Pacific allies more easily and put the U.S.'s credibility to protect its allies in question.
  • Due to China's centrality in the global economy, economic sanctions against China are unwise. They will cause a self-defeating trade disruption to the U.S. and undermine the U.S.-built international economic system. 
  • Nevertheless, the U.S. must have an affirmative response in a Taiwan contingency to protect the global economy: 
  1. The Fed must coordinate with other central banks to provide liquidity to reduce market panic and prevent a global financial collapse. 
  2. The U.S. should initiate and fund an Economic Security Cooperation Board with like-minded governments as members to sustain business confidence in the global trading system. 
  3. The U.S. should work with allies to identify alternative sources of critical products from China. 
  4. Instead of a sudden and harsh tariff, the U.S. should increase tariffs on non-critical consumer products from China to decrease dependence on China and prevent inflation from going out of control. 
  • It will be difficult to punish China without retaliation from Beijing. Nevertheless, building an economic security framework will be the best defense against trade and financial disruptions. 
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