作者/Author(s): Derek Scissors 

網站來源/Source: American Enterprise Institute 

日期/Date: 04/10/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、關稅、川普 


摘要：
川普暫停對等關稅計畫似乎有利於中國以外的所有國家。然而，這項關稅暫緩政策在某些方面可能也對中國有利。
  •  轉運（Transshipment）是指在第三國製造或經由中介地轉運產品，以掩飾貨物真正來源地的方法。
  • 小額豁免（The de minimis exception）則是指低於某個金額標準的貨物就不需繳納關稅。 
  • 川普上任後很快就對中國產品徵收高額關稅，是因為轉運和小額豁免等條款，讓他的第一任期對中戰略效果大打折扣。在第一次關稅戰中，越南是中國轉運到美國的主要協力者。對轉運國家徵收高關稅，將嚴格限制中國將貨物轉運到美國的能力。 
  • 在川普暫緩對許多國家徵收關稅之後，中國現在可以透過轉運第三國，來逃避美國的關稅。小額豁免條款也對中國有利，因為美國無法在不嚴重影響貿易的前提下找到其他替代方案。 
  • 川普政府正試圖終止中國的小額豁免優勢和轉運做法，這非常考驗美國的決心。
  • 若川普政府這個做法失敗了，他們可能沒有其他限制中國進口的準備。 
  • 美國政府也缺乏足夠的執法能力來檢驗轉運商品的原產地。 
  • 基於這些因素，中國沒有動機與川普政府展開積極談判。然而，這並不意味著美國應該恢復對貿易夥伴全面徵收高關稅，這可能會衝擊現今的貿易體系，打擊美元作為主要儲備貨幣的地位，致使美國和全球股市崩盤，引起全球經濟和社會動盪。 
  • 川普要求各國持續使用美元的主張是對的，但全球金融體系應該加以修正並改革，以減少掠奪性國家「搭便車」的行為。  
  • 為了贏得對中貿易戰，美國必須解決現存的問題，例如傾銷和智慧財產盜竊，這是關稅無法解決的。只有可信的執法，並在必要時威脅將中國排除在全球貿易體系之外，才能真正發揮效果。 
Summary: 
Trump's pause on tariffs seems to benefit everyone except China. However, the tariff suspension may benefit China in some ways. 
  • Transshipment is a method of manufacturing products in a third country or shipping products via an intermediary to conceal the goods' origins.  
  • The de minimis exception is a value below which tariffs don't apply. 
  • Trump immediately imposed a high tariff on Chinese products because transshipment and de minimis exception rendered his methods ineffective during his first term. During the first tariff war, Vietnam was the primary facilitator of Chinese transshipment to the U.S. A high tariff on transshipment countries will severely restrict China's ability to redirect its product to the U.S. 
  • China now could evade American tariffs by using intermediaries after Trump suspended heavy tariffs on many countries. The de minimis exception also favored China because the U.S. could not find other alternatives without severely disrupting trade. 
  • The Trump administration is trying to end China's de minimis advantage and transshipment practices, which is also a test of the U.S. resolve.  
  • If the administration fails, the U.S. is unprepared to restrict Chinese imports. 
  • The administration does not have sufficient enforcement capacities to scan transshipped goods. 
  • The administration does not have sufficient enforcement capacities to scan transshipped goods. 
  • Due to these factors, China is not incentivized to negotiate with Trump. However, it does not mean the U.S. should resume a blanket high tariff on its trade partners, which may end the current trade system, erode the dollar's role as the primary reserve currency, crash the U.S. and global stock markets, and cause global economic and social disruption. 
  • Trump is right to demand that countries use the dollar, but the global financial system should be revised to reduce the free ride from predatory countries.  
  • To win the trade war against China, the U.S. must address existing issues, such as dumping and intellectual property theft, which tariffs could not address. Only credible enforcement and the threat to exclude China from the global trade network could work. 
 
 
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