作者/Author(s): Edward Fishman. Gautam Jain, and Richard Nephew 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 04/08/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、財政、川普、美元 


摘要：
過去七十幾年以來，沒有其他貨幣像美元一樣重要。雖然全球市場動盪，各國也曾試圖挑戰美元的地位，但美元仍屹立不搖。川普近期對所有美國貿易夥伴發動關稅戰，象徵著他將美國經濟實力「武器化」，這在他的第一任期中也很明確。然而，川普濫用美國經濟實力，無視法治精神，恐將危及美元作為世界主要儲備貨幣的地位，進而削弱他想掌控的美國經濟力量。 
  • 自1920年代起，美元一直是全球外匯儲備的首選貨幣。布列敦森林會議及其所建立的金融機構（國際貨幣基金與世界銀行）更進一步鞏固了美元的霸權地位。 
  • 美元能成為主要儲備貨幣，有賴其市場流動性、作為國際貿易計價基準，以及作為價值儲存與投資工具的可靠性。目前並沒有其他貨幣能媲美元的這些優勢： 
  1. 人民幣的主要弱點在於中國欠缺開放且流動性高的金融市場，並且實施資本管制。雖然中國已推出人民幣跨境支付系統（CIPS）來代替SWIFT，但其全球使用率仍十分有限。 
  2. 歐元作為全球第二大交易和儲備貨幣，地位較接近美國。然而，歐盟缺乏統一的財政政策，且易受俄羅斯威脅的影響，是歐元最大的缺陷。 
  3. 金磚國家先前宣稱將推出以成員國貨幣作為支撐的新共同貨幣，試圖挑戰美元霸權，但他們並沒有建立財政聯盟，內部的分歧甚至比歐盟更嚴重。 
  4. 許多專家也建議使用加密貨幣作為替代品，但這些貨幣不具備儲備貨幣的特質，特別因為它們缺乏政府背書，且價值來源不明。 
  • 美元的霸權地位不會馬上殞落，但川普的行為將逐步侵蝕美元主導地位的實力。 
  1. 川普的關稅、移民和減稅政策，或許暫時能推升美元，但也造成經濟不確定性，損害了消費者與企業的信心。 
  2. 川普的外交政策，特別是關稅與制裁行動，嚴重削弱美國作為可靠貿易夥伴的信譽。因此，各國正積極降低對美元的依賴，以減少自身受到川普突發行動的衝擊。這也使中國能更積極推廣CIPS系統，進而重塑國際金融秩序。 
  3. 川普對法治精神的漠視，以及與美國聯準會（Fed）間的衝突，更會動搖美元的政治基礎。他提出的減稅方案可能加劇美國政府的債務問題，削弱其作為債務國的信用。最終，川普的作為將逐漸破壞國際社會對美元的信心。 
Summary: 
No other currency has been as important as the U.S. dollar for over seventy years. The U.S. dollar has remained strong despite global market turmoils and attempts to rival it. Trump's tariff war on nearly all the U.S. trading partners symbolizes his weaponization of the U.S. economic power, which is also evident in his first tenure. However, Trump's abuse of the U.S. economic power and disregard for the rule of law may threaten the U.S. dollar's position as the premier reserve currency. Consequently, it may diminish the U.S. economic power which Trump seeks to wield. 
  • Since the 1920s, the U.S. dollar has been the primary choice for global foreign exchange reserves. The Bretton Woods Conference and the resulting financial institutions (IMF and World Bank) reinforced the dollar's hegemonic position. 
  • The U.S. dollar's dominance as the leading reserve currency relies on its liquidity, usage as a unit of account for global trade, and reliability as a store of value. No other currencies could match the U.S. dollar's strengths. 
  1. The main weakness of the Renminbi is China's lack of open and liquid financial markets and capital controls. China has its alternative to SWIFT, but its global usage is still limited. 
  2. The Euro is similar to the U.S. dollar and is the second most traded and commonly held reserve currency. However, the Euro is flawed because the EU lacks a unified fiscal policy among members and is vulnerable to Russia's constant threat. 
  3. Although BRICS touted a new common currency backed by a basket of currencies from members to compete with the U.S. dollar, it does not have a common fiscal union, and the grouping is more fragmented than the EU. 
  4. Many experts also suggested using cryptocurrencies as alternatives. However, they do not have the properties of reserve currency, particularly because they are not government-backed and do not have a clear source of value. 
  • The U.S. dollar dominance will not diminish instantly, but Trump's actions will erode the pillars of dollar dominance. 
  1. Trump's policies, including tariffs, migration, and tax cuts, may temporarily boost the U.S. dollar. However, those policies created economic uncertainty and undermined consumer and business confidence. 
  2. Trump's foreign policies, especially tariffs and sanctions, damage the U.S. credibility as a reliable trading partner. Consequently, countries seek to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar to limit exposure to Trump's impulse. This also allows China to promote the global use of CIPS and reshape the international financial order. 
  3. Trump's disregard for the rule of law and conflict with the Fed will shake the political foundation of the dollar. His tax cut ideas may exacerbate the U.S. government debt problem and credibility as a borrower. Trump's actions will undermine foreign confidence in the dollar. 
 
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