作者/Author(s): Dan Blumenthal 

網站來源/Source: American Enterprise Institute 

日期/Date: 03/06/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、烏克蘭、亞洲、中國


摘要：
跨大西洋夥伴關係的分裂以及川普偏袒普丁的行為，是習近平重大的戰略勝利。北京與莫斯科的緊密合作不僅幫助俄羅斯延長俄烏戰線，也是為了削弱美國在二戰後的全球領導地位。 
  • 習近平早已預見到 2022 年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭將成為歷史轉折點，西方國家會在此戰失利，而北京將主導新的全球秩序。因此，北京積極協助俄羅斯獲取關鍵的軍民兩用技術，並減輕西方制裁帶來的影響。 
  • 北京也幫忙宣傳莫斯科對戰爭的說法，指責美國和北約挑起戰爭。 
  • 川普決定終止支持烏克蘭，不僅讓普丁獲得了他想要的勝利，還可能加速北約衰落、美國盟友體系瓦解，更為中國擴張領土的野心開了綠燈。 
  • 中國對俄羅斯的投資可能會讓美國的對手取得戰略勝利，開啟地緣政治的新篇章。 
  1. 中國可能進一步向台灣、菲律賓以及印太地區的盟友宣傳「美國是不可靠的安全夥伴」。 
  2. 與美國保持深厚安全合作的國家，可能得重新評估與美國的關係。 
  3. 中國將不斷挑釁美國最親近的盟友，來測試美國的安全承諾。 
  4. 北約可能會撤出印太地區，向中國作出讓步，以在波羅的海專心對付俄羅斯。 
  5. 如果中國威脅行為不斷升級，可能會進一步煽動俄羅斯和北韓發動三線全球戰爭。 
  • 上述情境是否會發生，取決於川普是否與普丁在烏克蘭問題上達成讓步。然而，如果川普的目標是迫使歐洲增加國防開支並加強對烏克蘭的武裝，則可能促成東歐的和平並提升美國在歐亞地區的安全地位。 
  • 如果財政問題是主要考量，川普應考慮沒收俄羅斯在歐洲的主權資產，這不僅能解決經濟負擔，還能向北京發出明確警告，顯示未來侵略行動可能招致的後果。 
Summary: 
The fragmentation of the trans-Atlantic security partnership and Trump's bias toward Putin presents a significant strategic win for Xi Jinping. Beijing and Moscow's tight collaboration was not only aimed at enabling Russia to continue its military operations in Ukraine but also to undermine the U.S. post-World War II global leadership. 
  • Xi anticipated the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a turning point in history in which the West lost, and Beijing led the new global order. Therefore, Beijing proactively helped Russia to secure critical dual-use components and alleviate the impact of Western sanctions. 
  • Beijing also promoted Moscow's narrative of the war, blaming the U.S. and NATO for instigating the war. 
  • Trump's decision to end support for Ukraine not only gives Putin the victory he desired but also solidifies NATO's decline and the collapse of the U.S. alliance system, giving China the green light to engage in territorial conquest. 
  • China's investment in Russia may give U.S. adversaries a strategic victory and open up a new chapter in geopolitics. 
  1. China could reiterate its narrative of the U.S. as an unreliable security partner to Taiwan, the Philippines, and Indo-Pacific allies.  
  2. Countries with profound security ties with the U.S. may have to reconsider their relations with the U.S. 
  3. China will test the U.S. security commitment by provoking more of its closest allies. 
  4. NATO may withdraw from the Indo-Pacific region and make concessions with China to focus on Russia in the Baltic Sea. 
  5. If China escalates its coercion, it incite Russia and Korea to start a three-front global war. 
  • The above scenarios are likely if Trump concedes to Putin's requests on Ukraine. However, if Trump aimed to scare Europe to ramp up their defense spending and arm Ukraine, it could foster peace and deter war in Eastern Europe while enhancing the U.S. security position in Eurasia. 
  • Trump should confiscate Russia's sovereign assets in Europe if financial issues are the main concern. Moreover, it could signal Beijing of the possible consequences of future aggression. 
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